The Rochdale by-election was an extraordinary electoral event. Not only did the Conservatives and Labour’s combined vote share fall by 63 percentage points – the worst result for either major party since the wartime by-elections of 1941-45 – but the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform Party all also emerged fell. However, the situation in Rochdale is so strange that one must be careful about drawing general conclusions about its impact on national electoral politics.

The stereotype of Rochdale is that it is a poor Labor stronghold. The constituency includes some prosperous suburban and rural areas to the east of the town, although the town does face social issues. Rochdale’s electoral history is varied and unstable. Labor faces competition from the Lib Dems, who held the seat from 1972-97 and 2005-10. In 2015, the Lib Dems’ vote share fell sharply, with UK Independence Party in second place; in 2017, the Conservative Party soared to second place; in 2019, the Conservative Party received its highest vote share since it last won seats in 1955.

While there is usually a loyal Labor vote, Labour’s opposition vacillates between the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Populists. Azhar Ali’s mid-campaign severance left Labor with half the electorate equally unstable.

George Galloway’s victory was aided by Rochdale’s demographics. There are only 17 constituencies with a higher proportion of Muslim residents than Rochdale’s 30.5%, and two of them – Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West – already have experience of being represented by Galloway.

Galloway’s campaign has always revolved around Muslim issues. Many of the arguments he made in Rochdale were updated versions of those from the 2012 Bradford campaign. Labour’s stance on the Gaza war was powerful fuel for protest votes, but flammable materials were always present.

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Labor will take comfort from the fact that the general election will be different in at least two ways. The conversation will be about who will form the national government, rather than the issue that arises in a one-off by-election. There was only one George Galloway. No one else has a record of electoral success, a network of support in non-traditional media, and a personal celebrity that reaches far and wide among young people and minority groups.

Labor is vulnerable in some constituencies with large Muslim populations but will be protected from significant losses due to a limited supply of viable independent or minor party challengers.

It would be a mistake to interpret Galloway’s victory solely in the context of Muslim politics and Gaza. He shrewdly promoted traditional workerist and social conservatism themes to left-behind white voters; in 2012 he won the white suburban constituency of Bradford West and will make a sizable gain among Rochdale’s mostly non-Muslim voters public support.

Galloway is a more convincing populist than Britain’s reformist Simon Danczuk. He even echoed Trump in his literature, calling for “Make Rochdale great again”. The fact that many Muslims are willing to vote for a populist who tells them what they want to hear is not a difference between Muslims and the rest of the population.

Independent candidate David Tully came in second with 21.3%, almost as shocking as Galloway’s victory. Talley went unnoticed by observers, but his campaign, largely based on local identity, had an impact on voters.

Galloway and Tully represent an alternative response to the problems faced by towns such as Rochdale. For Tully, the answer is to have a truly local voice, away from party politics, to speak for Rochdale in Westminster. Galloway’s argument was that people were electing a councilor and Rochdale needed a loud and controversial advocate to put it on the map.

Galloway is unique in modern politics in that he represents four completely different constituencies – Glasgow, East London, Bradford and now Rochdale – but he has been linked with another Labor turncoat Ramsay Macdonald has the same distinction.

Labor could take back Rochdale at the general election with a fully endorsed candidate and a proper campaign. But the dissatisfaction with politics exposed by this strange election is a warning sign. Despite the absence of a Labor machine, the by-election turnout of 39.7% was quite high, higher than the mainstream party contests in Wellingborough and Kingswood.

Rochdale offers a poignant example of the politics of decline. Successive political projects – New Labour, Brexit, leveling up – were seen as failing as central and local public services and infrastructure deteriorated. As in Gaza, voters are also concerned about health, crime and the decline of Rochdale as a retail centre. If Labor wins the election, it may not have much time to turn things around before some of its core voters lose patience.