When President Vladimir Putin delivers an important speech, many people Longtime Russia Observer Approach them with a weary sense of responsibility.
You know you’re going to go through a long and tedious mix of empty threats to the West and empty promises to Russian subjects, looking for those key moments and phrases that will interest Western readers and potentially Western politicians.
Poor victim sat in the same room as Putin Must try hard not to doze off during a lengthy and detailed elaboration of the economic plan.
This time is no exception. Putin’s speech served a dual purpose, serving as a domestic political ceremony and an international gesture. It was this gesture that caught the attention of the West—specifically, that its support for Ukraine “could trigger a conflict that would use nuclear weapons and destroy civilization.”
Russia’s overt nuclear threat has been dormant for some time. Some analysts attribute this to pressure from China to tone down irresponsible language. Whatever the reason, Putin apparently feels that enough time has passed for him to return to direct nuclear threats and claim that confrontation with Moscow would mean the end of the world.
This is what some British military officers call a “nuclear wave of intent,” which doesn’t mean much in real life. There is no indication that Russia is taking any action to back up its rhetoric. By the end of 2022, Russia’s nuclear threat has expired and Putin has to say “This is not a bluff“Trying to be taken seriously.
The speech was not all about the war. Putin drew his optimistic stories from elsewhere, although many of them also belong on the fiction bookshelf. Economists are now scrambling to figure out what measures Putin used to decide that Russia has “the largest economy in Europe.” For rural areas where living standards have remained essentially unchanged for a century, promises of home gas and internet service may ring hollow. who may be satisfied with the provision of roads and sanitation first. The need to produce consumer goods domestically would not encourage anyone who experienced the consequences of Russia or the Soviet Union trying to do so.
Putin stated many times in his speech last year that Boasting record low unemployment rate in Russia — No mention of how this was facilitated by the number of people killed in the war or the number of people who immigrated to avoid the war. On Thursday, he instead recognized that Russia faces a severe shortage of human resources and renewed his call to boost Russia’s birth rate — effectively telling his people to go ahead and reproduce.
Economic promises belied the way the Russian economy was increasingly turning to the war effort, but there were mentions of volunteers and businesses sending “packages, warm clothes, camouflage nets” and their savings to the front. (Of course, there is no mention of why this volunteer support is needed, other than Russia being able to provide its own troops.)
His claim that Russia now has “a generation of commanders who take care of its soldiers” doesn’t quite fit with the story of Russia on the front lines in Ukraine and sending out “flesh wave” attacks to absorb Ukrainian bullets regardless of where they came from. The cost of Russian lives.
In talking about the war, Putin strongly emphasized the core myth that the West wanted to attack, dismember and destroy Russia – that Russia was not fighting a genocidal war to reconquer its peaceful neighbors, but to defend itself against external aggressors.
He said the prospect of Western troops helping to defend Ukraine was the same as invading Russia itself. That’s the basis for all the renewed reminders: Yes, Russia does have nuclear weapons.
Putin also took this opportunity to exploit German Chancellor Olaf Scholz This week, Scholz expressed his fear of Russia by announcing that not only Germany, but all of NATO, would not send ground troops to Ukraine.
While the United States and Germany have previously provided substantial material support to Ukraine, the Biden-Scholz axis of timidity has limited Kyiv’s options—even before obstruction in the U.S. Congress cut off aid entirely. Now, Putin’s priorities in his speech confirm that Russia is preparing for a long war.
Trump’s possible inauguration as president at the end of this year will change Russia’s power beyond recognition.But even before November, the aid blockage means Putin is not alone in thinking this Russia currently holds the initiative in the war.
The danger is that Putin’s comments on Thursday will once again give Europe’s most timid leaders another excuse to moderate support for Ukraine and avoid Prepare your defense Will Ukraine finally give in?
Putin and Scholz performed a perfect double act, lending support to those who advocated handing Ukraine over to Moscow. That puts not just Ukraine, but all of us, at risk — and that’s exactly what Putin wants.
Keir Giles is a writer and commentator on Russian affairs.He is a Senior Consultant Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, London, and his latest book is Russia’s war against everyone
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