New Delhi:

Confident of winning national elections starting this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious goal to double the economy and exports within a decade, according to a government document seen by Reuters.

Prime Minister Modi highlighted economic growth as one of his biggest achievements at election rallies and “guaranteed” that if he is elected for a third consecutive term as polls predict, his economy will jump from fifth place now to the world’s largest. Three.

He has asked officials to finalize plans around May to expand the nominal economy to $6.69 trillion by 2030 from about $3.51 trillion currently, according to the October document. Although specific details on how to achieve this goal are lacking, it has become the basis for officials’ meetings.

Five years ago, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was re-elected, he pledged to lift the economy to $5 trillion this fiscal year, but achieving that goal is now nearly impossible, partly due to disruptions caused by COVID-19. .

Prime Minister Modi aims to raise per capita income from about $2,500 to $4,418 over the next six years, the document said, without specifying the spending or reforms needed to achieve that goal.

Prime Minister Modi’s office and the finance ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Independent economist Saugata Bhattacharya said doubling the economy by the end of the century would be a “very difficult task” and would require economic growth of 6% to 6.5% over the next seven years and an inflation rate of 4.5%.

However, the economy is expected to grow by about 8% in the last fiscal year to March 31, the fastest among major countries, supported by strong manufacturing and construction activity driven by government spending.

Subhash Chandra Garg, a former senior finance ministry official, said the growth forecasts in the document were mostly based on “backward arithmetic” and lacked any “reform and investment plans”.

“Often, such mental exercises based on arithmetic calculations and assumptions are meaningless unless there is a serious reform and investment plan to test its real economic dynamics,” said Garg, who served as finance minister in the Modi government until 2019.

The opposition Congress party says India’s economic growth over the past few years under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done little to create jobs and alleviate rural poverty and has widened the gap between rich and poor. The document states that Prime Minister Modi’s government hopes to jump in exports of goods and services from about US$700 billion to US$1.58 trillion by 2030, which could double India’s export share of global trade to more than 4%.

The government also plans to focus on improvements in 70 areas, including workforce skills and vocational training, a key demand from industry leaders who have often complained about workforce skill levels. It wants literacy rates to rise to 82% by 2030 from about 78% now, unemployment to fall from 8% to below 5%, and labor force participation to jump from 46% to over 50% now.

Prime Minister Modi told the rally that he needs to stay in power and implement measures to take India from the current middle-income level to a developed economy by 2047 (the 100th anniversary of independence). He did not elaborate on the measures.

Opinion polls suggest he will win by a landslide in the election, which begins on April 19 and ends on June 1 after seven phases, with the vote counting date being June 4.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance is likely to win nearly three-quarters of seats in parliament, which could hit a record low, according to a survey on Wednesday.

He will become the first person since Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms.