Tensions in the West Bank have reached a “boiling point” amid an alarming rise in support for armed attacks on Israel since October 7, and Ramadan could become a flashpoint for a new round of violence, the main Palestinian pollster warns So.
As death, disease and starvation sweep across Gaza and Israeli settler violence spirals out of control, a major survey of Palestinian public opinion this year shows that 68% (more than two-thirds) of people in the occupied West Bank support Armed violence.
This is up from 35% in September 2022 and 54% a year later – 12 months into Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition and with growing numbers of Palestinians The West Bank is under attack by settlers.
“This is the highest level of support for armed struggle we have seen since the founding of the country second uprisingPolitical scientist Khalil Shikaki said he conducted a survey of 1,200 people in Gaza and the West Bank and the results will be released this month.
Professor Shikaki, a senior West Bank pollster and director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, warned that tensions in the West Bank risked “exploding”. He noted that the increase in violence was driven by three main factors: anger over Gaza’s huge death toll, rising levels of settler violence and the “inability” of the Palestinian Authority, which partially rules the West Bank, to protect Palestinians.
His poll showed that before October 7, only 8% of Palestinians in the West Bank supported the formation of armed groups to protect themselves from attacks by militants. This number has now risen to 56%.
“The Israel Defense Forces have an element to check extremist settlers [Israel Defence Forces].But it seems that’s not happening at all 1710094876. It appears that the military, police and settlers are acting in unison,” Professor Shikaki said. “People have concluded that the PA police will not help them. This has led to increased support for armed groups. “
The war in Gaza coincides with a surge in violence in the West Bank, where at least 400 Palestinians have been killed in clashes with Israeli soldiers and settlers, and Israeli forces regularly attack Palestinian areas in the region.
Last week, the Israeli government advanced plans to build more than 3,400 new homes in West Bank settlements. The settlements are considered illegal under international law.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, one of the far-right extremists supporting the coalition government, boasted that a total of 18,515 housing units had been approved in West Bank settlements over the past year. “The enemy seeks to harm and weaken us, but we will continue to build and grow in this land,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
“Instead of building a future of hope, peace and security, the Israeli government is paving the way for our destruction,” said Israel’s anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now.
There are concerns over the actions of Smotrich’s far-right cabinet colleague and security minister Itamar Ben Gvir supply more weapons — including M16 assault rifles and even anti-tank missiles — would increase bloodshed for Israeli settlers.
Outgoing Israeli Labor Party leader Merav Michaeli said I: “Violence continues to increase. Ben-Gvir’s supply of 10,000 M16 rifles to extremist settlers also endangers Israelis.”
Scenes of destruction in Gaza have further fueled Palestinian hostility to Israel, with reports that more than 30,000 people (1.5% of the population) have been killed in the past four months and the specter of famine now looms.
Notably, Professor Shakiki’s research shows that only a quarter of Gazans believe atrocities against Israelis occurred on October 7, including widespread murder, torture and rape.
In the West Bank, the number is even lower – only 7% of Palestinians believe this.
Professor Shikaki believes this can largely be explained by the refusal of major Arab media outlets – including Al Jazeera’s Arabic version – to report on atrocities or existence of video Show them.
“The vast majority of Palestinians simply cannot see the atrocities committed by Hamas,” he said. “They do not believe atrocities occurred. Most Palestinians say they have not seen any videos showing these crimes.”
He said Palestinians who saw the videos were ten times more likely to believe Hamas had committed atrocities. “If Palestinians see atrocities, do they know what atrocities are? Yes, they do,” he said.
He added: “Most Gazans and Palestinians do not believe Hamas is using human shields, they believe they are trying to break the blockade on Palestinians and free them.”
However, he noted that Hamas has never gained majority support. “Currently, in the West Bank it is 44%. In Gaza, it is 42%,” he said.
Elias Zananiri, adviser to the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas I He believes the destruction inflicted on Gaza by the Israel Defense Forces as a result of the Hamas attack on October 7 caused many Gazans to distance themselves from the Islamist group.
Mr Zananiri, who leads the Palestinian Authority and is a member of the more moderate Palestinian party Fatah, said: “I am in touch with the people of Gaza. They used to call me a traitor to the Palestinian Authority. Now, I think Some of them have more anti-Hamas sentiments than I do because they know all the tunnels Hamas has built for themselves and their families and think about what happened to themselves and their families when their mother lost her husband and her mother. Five, six, seven kids suddenly found themselves living in a tent.”
But Professor Shikaki’s research also highlights that support for the Palestinian Authority leadership has also plummeted amid accusations of corruption, incompetence and collusion with Israel. Abbas has been in power for nearly two decades and has refused to hold new elections. There is evidence that 92% of people in the West Bank want him to resign. “If the election were held today, Abbas would have no chance of winning,” Professor Shikaki said.
Israel’s new repressive policies in the West Bank, including the construction of 100 new “iron gates” since 7 October, appear to have further exacerbated tensions.
Professor Shikaki said the Iron Gates – roadblocks that limit or completely block Palestinian movement within their own West Bank territory – have exacerbated an already dire economic situation here and stoked further discontent.
“In many cases, the iron gates have not been opened for several days after October 7… so we cannot use the main roads like we used to. We have to use dirt roads away from the main roads most of the time,” he said. “It means it’s extremely difficult for businesses to operate.”
At best, he said, only 15 percent of Palestinians report to Palestinian Authority ministries in Ramallah, the West Bank capital. “For the past four months we have been trying to pay taxes to the Palestinian Authority. But every time we have completely failed because of obstacles.
“Basically what the military does is create economic conditions that are very suitable for an outbreak.”
Last month, the Palestinian Authority said it would pay public sector workers only 60% of their December wages because of the Refusal to transfer tax funds Designated for use in Gaza.
However, those in the West Bank who have experienced reduced wages may consider themselves lucky.
Driving through Ramallah, dozens of young unemployed men hang out on street corners. One in five men in the West Bank is unemployed.
Some fear that if Palestinian Authority security forces are not paid, they may provide their services to terrorist groups—a feature of the second intifada 20 years ago.
But Professor Schikasi said the most pressing concern was Monday – the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
“If we see conflict in Jerusalem or restrictions on access to the Holy Land, that could be the trigger for everything.”
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