Asteroid 2024 YR4’s chances of hitting the Earth have dropped to 1.5 per cent from 3.1 per cent days ago, NASA has confirmed. NASA said the 3.1 per cent probability was the highest the agency ever recorded for an asteroid of this size or more. It may hit the planet after seven years, in 2032.
The asteroid, estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide, was first discovered on December 27, 2024. It drew astronomers’ attention when it appeared on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on December 31, 2024. While the initial risk of the asteroid was concerning, it has now diminished.
What’s being done about Asteroid 2024 YR4
The astronomers are regularly monitoring the situation to improve the understanding of where 2024 YR4 could be on December 22, 2032. They also highlighted the importance of gathering data to determine the future risk to the planet. The US Space Agency said the impact probability will most likely change when further observations of the asteroid are made in the following days.
In an X post, NASA said, “New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5 per cent. Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every observation.”
New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%.
Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every observation. We’ll keep you posted. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv pic.twitter.com/SfZIxflB95
— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025
NASA further said that the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth is likely to drop to zero. “For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032,” it added.
There is also a smaller chance that the 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon, where the probability is estimated to be around 0.8 per cent. The space rock will be so far away by April 2025 that it will be difficult to detect by Earth-based telescopes, and the updates will not be possible until 2028, the agency added.
What could happen if Asteroid 2024 YR4 hits Earth
The amount of damage caused by an asteroid is influenced by its size and composition. While the actual size of the asteroid 2024 YR4 is still unknown, an airburst is a likely option given its size range. If this enters the atmosphere above the ocean, studies show that air-bursting objects of this size are unlikely to create substantial tsunamis. In 2027, NASA also plans to launch a mission to help discover unknown asteroids.
Experts say that an object of this size is not a threat to the entire planet, but it may cause massive damage if it hits a big city and may unleash an energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT.
To put it into perspective, it’s more than 500 times the power of the atomic bomb that nearly wiped out Hiroshima, Japan.