As the conflict in Syria enters its 14th year, analysts say a permanent political solution remains elusive in the war-torn country.
Despite gradually regaining much of the territory previously held by anti-government rebels, forces loyal to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies are still fighting numerous battles, particularly in the country’s northwest rebels in the region, where Turkish-backed groups still control some territory.
In the northeast, U.S.-backed Kurdish forces control large swathes of territory, some of which they liberated from the Islamic State terror group.
“It’s hard to imagine a sustainable political solution in Syria while fighting continues to rage,” said John Saleh, a Syria fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
He told Voice of America: “The complexity of the Syrian conflict makes finding workable solutions extremely challenging. This is a multi-faceted war, and ending this war requires an international consensus, which is obviously difficult to achieve. “
Protests turn into civil war
According to the United Nations, the protest movement against the Assad regime that began in 2011 quickly evolved into a civil war that has killed more than 300,000 people at home and abroad and displaced more than 13 million people. Other war monitors, including the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, put the death toll at 500,000.
The United Nations said this week 16.7 million people Humanitarian aid is needed in Syria.
Paulo Pinheiro, Chairman of the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry, said: “More than 90% of the population now lives in poverty, the economy has plummeted under tightening sanctions, and lawlessness has increased, fueling the looting of armed forces and militias. behavior and extortion.” Syria.
In a report released this week, the commission said the country had experienced a wave of violence in recent months not seen since 2020, warning that attacks on civilians and infrastructure by all parties to the conflict amounted to war. crime.
United Nations-led effort
Last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an end to the war through the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The resolution was adopted in 2015 and aims to end the Syrian conflict through a political transition. The United Nations has also hosted several rounds of talks between government and opposition representatives aimed at drafting a new constitution for the country.
But David Adesnik, research director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said U.N.-led peace talks in Syria in recent years have shown no signs of being viable.
“The regime is content to create the illusion of cooperation by endlessly delaying negotiations. Despite Assad’s continued atrocities and complete lack of remorse, he has felt no real pressure to yield after the Arab League welcomed him back to power, “He told the Voice of America reporter.
Last year, the Arab League readmitted Syria to the regional bloc after being suspended for nearly 12 years due to the Assad government’s brutal crackdown on anti-government protesters in 2011. Some Arab countries in the region have also restored relations with Assad in recent years, including Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and others.
“Nearly all Arab states have abandoned U.N. and Western-led efforts to push for change in Damascus, whether through constitutional reform or isolation,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
The fentacan factor
More than a decade of conflict has devastated Syria’s economy, causing businesses that rely on drug trafficking and other illegal activities to flourish.
As a result, experts say, the country, especially regime-controlled areas, has become a regional hub for the production and smuggling of Captagon, a cheaply produced, addictive amphetamine-like drug.
“When we talk about a political solution to Syria, especially in light of UN Resolution 2254, combating illicit networks associated with the regime should be part of the discussion,” said Carolyn Ross, senior analyst at the New Line Institute. “
“However, it should not be viewed as a ‘gateway’ or first step to being able to make greater progress on solving the problem,” Ross told VOA. “Captagon is used as a low-hanging fruit in normalization discussions. , which proved to be a failed strategy as the regime did not make any meaningful concessions in reducing its role in trade or stemming financial flows.”
Adesnik of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies shares a similar view.
“Jordanians have learned unpleasant lessons from Arab reconciliation efforts with Damascus,” he said. “What Amman wants most is an end to Captagon trafficking, which comes as violence on the Syrian-Jordanian border becomes more Violence, this situation is only going to get worse.”
Adesnik said Russia, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, has blocked a resolution against the Syrian regime and that given the defeat of anti-government rebels, “there is little hope of resolving the crisis in Syria unless it is on Assad’s terms.”
“But that shouldn’t mean giving up,” he said. “The United States and Europe should strengthen sanctions and make every effort to deprive Assad of his income and cause greater losses.”
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