Labour’s Jonathan Ashworth bets Sunak will call general election in May in TV interview

Philip CowleyA political science professor posted these posts on X yesterday, explaining why he thinks Rishi Sunak may run in the May election.

I have long believed that the election would be held on the evening of the 24th or even early on the 25th. But I think there are two things that might help with an early election.
— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) March 4, 2024

I have long believed that the election would be held on the evening of the 24th or even early on the 25th. But I think there are two things that might help with an early election.

First, there is good data to show that in many ways things are getting worse for the Conservatives every month. Demographic changes and mortgage renewals alone won’t help.

The second one is the Prime Minister. While I don’t think he’s a risk-taker, he’s good with numbers (not all members of Congress can do that) and takes numbers seriously. Plus, he doesn’t need the job as much as some people do.

He is a portfolio professional. He will not spend the rest of his life on the backbench or in the House of Lords. We could put our finger on the ball as to how long he will continue to serve the good people of Richmond after his term in the 10th is over, but we all bet low.

So under normal circumstances you would take Micawber’s approach and keep at it and hope something would come up, I feel like there’s a good chance he believes things are only going to get worse and he’ll probably get into a fight from time to time that he can do something about Something that pays better…

I still think lateness is more likely because it would be too bad to fall behind by more than 20 points and call an election. But what if someone actually convinced you that they would only get worse…?

Jonathan Ashworth bets Rishi Sunak will call general election in May

Good morning.In recent days, there has been growing chatter in Westminster that Rishi Sunak may call a general election in May (specifically Thursday 2 May, the most obvious date for a spring election). Come on, this morning Jonathan AshworthShadow Cabinet Office minister takes this up a notch by gambling Kay Burley Sky News says it will happen.

Ashworth explain:

By the way, I think this election is going to be in May. I think May is definitely coming. The Conservatives are planning for May.

Burley Offer to bet him that he won’t. Burley, who may not be as wealthy as Piers Morgan and certainly less vain and rude, offered a £10 bet rather than a £1,000 bet. Ashworth accepted, they shook hands, and Ashworth suggested donating the money to a charity for children of alcoholics.

Labor has been predicting a May election for years, but most journalists in Westminster didn’t take it particularly seriously until recently. Labor has its own reasons for claiming Labour is the date in Sunak’s diary. If Sunak drags his feet, Labor can claim he has “bottled” the deal. And, internally, the line is being pushed to “refrain from complacency” and ensure the party is ready for May if necessary.

Burley reflected convention based on precedent and the fact that prime ministers in the post-war period who faced possible electoral defeat almost always postponed polling day for as long as possible. Even if Number Ten is in permanent crisis, being chancellor is a hugely exciting job and nothing else Sunak does in his life will feel so important. You don’t give up easily, and party leaders found it easy to convince themselves, Micawber-style, that if they waited six months, something might happen.

But recently, there has been more talk about May being an option, with reports that some in the 10th president are pushing the idea.

last week, Steve BuckThe Downing Street photographer specializes in using a long lens to capture the documents people carry as they enter Number 10, which he posts on X.

My prediction! ! Rishi will announce the 2024 elections on March 28.
— Political Pictures (@PoliticalPics) February 28, 2024

My prediction! ! Rishi will announce the 2024 elections on March 28.

And, in response to someone asking him if he would be willing to bet on it (not Kay Burley), he replied:

As a lad who doesn’t gamble, I’ll give you a few glasses of Red Lion sherry! If I’m wrong, don’t forget that I saw the document through a lens!

and in Report from the Mail on Sunday In the weekend Glenn Owen and Anna Mikhailova Says thinking in Sunak’s circle is changing.

Until recently, Mr Sunak’s advisers had been almost unanimous in agreeing to leave the election to the last minute to give the flagging economy time to recover.However, the worrying accumulation Jeremy HunterWednesday’s budget cast doubt on the wisdom of this strategy.
As one key figure put it: “Six weeks ago we were looking at allocating a £30bn package in the form of dramatic, potentially game-changing tax cuts.” Now, as government borrowing costs rise, this The numbers have been reduced by more than half”…
Autumn will be the time for a bill over issues such as the infected blood scandal that could hit £11bn, with a further £2bn to compensate victims of Post Office miscarriages of justice, a well-connected MP has said. Hundreds and thousands of voters are ditching fixed-rate mortgages for higher loan rates.
The MP added: “I am absolutely part of May’s team.” As the Mail on Sunday reported last month, government offices have met to prepare for the elections on May 2, the same day as local elections. Make emergency arrangements.
Had Mr Sunak traveled to the country on the same day, at least any attempt by Tory MPs to oust him would have been avoided if the outcome was as bad as expected.
Members of ‘Team May’ also noted Sir Keir Starmer’s Labor Party is now divided over the Gaza conflict – As evidenced by Mr Galloway’s victory over his party, and believes the polls show no sign of change.
Indeed, legal immigration figures due to be released at the end of May are expected to be “a horror show” and with another summer of small boat crossings looming, the party’s support could fall below the current 20% to “extinction levels” , the Conservatives may even be overtaken by Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.

Greg HandsThe London minister was speaking to the government this morning and when asked if he thought there was any prospect of a general election in May, he said no.

Hands is the former chairman of the Conservative Party. But he was sacked in November and given a junior ministerial post. If there was a secret No. 10 plan for the May election, it’s unlikely he knew about it.

This is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Chief Inspector Andy Cooke of the Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services gave evidence to the House of Commons home affairs committee.

10 o’clock in the morning: MoneySavingExpert founder and consumer advocate Martin Lewis gives evidence on financial education to the House of Commons education committee. Education Minister Damian Hinds gives evidence at 11am.

11.30am: Downing Street holds lobby briefing.

11.30am: Health Minister Victoria Atkins was questioned in the House of Commons.

3.10pm: Foreign Secretary David Cameron opens the foreign affairs debate in the House of Lords.

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