Kyrgyzstan officials are optimistic about China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project

Kyrgyzstan officials remain optimistic about the much-anticipated China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, but skeptics say the mega-project is a long shot.

this projectCKU, for short, dates back to 1997, when the three countries signed a memorandum of understanding to build a railway connecting China’s Xinjiang province with Uzbekistan’s Andijan province via Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn and Osh provinces.

On April 2, Kyrgyzstan officials rolled out a red carpet for Elgin Tunyaz, Chairman of China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, who was on a two-day visit to Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz Cabinet Chairman Akilbek Japarov used the meeting to showcase CKU’s progress.

Japarov said that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction project is making significant progress. He added that representatives from the three countries had met in February to discuss construction plans.

Despite optimism and repeated attempts to get the project off the ground – which some regional observers have dubbed a “dream railway” – CKU has stalled as countries face financing and technical challenges.

Some regional observers also claim that geopolitical factors also played a role, with Russia and Kazakhstan trying to dissuade China from providing funding to CKU. Neither Russia nor Kazakhstan commented on the project.

Kyrgyz President promotes project

The project’s fortunes began to change after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when Western sanctions against Russia prompted China and Central Asian republics to find new transit routes to Europe. In September 2022, during the Samarkand Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan, the three countries reached an agreement to conduct a feasibility study on the railway next year.

The 2023 study estimated that it would cost approximately $4.5 billion to complete the 454-kilometer (282.1-mile) railway.

Since 2022, the Kyrgyz government has launched an extensive public information campaign to promote the project. In June of that year, Kyrgyz President Sadr Japarov told the Kyrgyz media that construction work on the CKU would begin in 2023.

During a visit to the United States and Germany in late 2023, Kyrgyz President Sadr Japarov assured the public that the project was progressing and called on Western investors to finance the project.

Despite official assurances, construction has not started in 2023, and it doesn’t look like it will start in 2024.

Countries disagree on the route

According to experts, participating countries are divided over the railway route. The 2023 feasibility study identified two potential routes: a northern route from China’s Kashgar province through Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn province to Uzbekistan’s Andijan province; and a southern route through Kyrgyzstan’s Osh province.

An expert in Bishkek, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told VOA that Kyrgyzstan “has always favored the northern route, which is longer, more technically complex and more expensive, but offers a better connection between the north of the country and Opportunities in the South.”

Kyrgyzstan is bounded to the north and south by the Aratu Mountains. The roads connecting them are often closed due to weather conditions.

“China and Uzbekistan have always supported the southern route because it is less complex and cheaper,” he said.

The expert said that Kyrgyzstan is willing to choose the lower-cost southern route in the face of pressure from China and Uzbekistan.

Tunnels, bridges pose challenges

Technical difficulties presented a different kind of challenge. A feasibility study found more than 50 tunnels and 90 bridges would be needed to cross the mountains on the proposed northern route. There is no similar information on the southern route.

Differences in railroad track gauge (or width) are also an issue. China uses 1,435 mm track, while Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan use 1,520 mm wide gauge track. Experts say this means the project will require the construction of unloading stations to transfer passengers and cargo to other train cars, which will increase costs.

Financing the project has become a significant hurdle. Preliminary cost estimates are $4.5 billion. Recent calculations by the Kyrgyz government indicate that the project will ultimately cost approximately $8 billion.

Most of the financing will go toward the 280-kilometer (173.9-mile) Kyrgyz section of the planned 454-kilometer (282.1-mile) railway.

Financial terms remain ‘a contentious issue’

Caspian Policy Center analysis for October 6The Washington think tank said, “While the project’s agenda has been finalized, financial terms remain a contentious issue. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan lack the financial capacity to support the project and both face huge debts.”

“Given the challenging economic conditions faced by these Central Asian governments, China may be hesitant to provide additional loans for the construction of such multi-billion dollar projects in Central Asia,” the newspaper said.

Kyrgyzstan officials scoffed at any suggestion that CKU was on hold due to financing constraints.

In late October, Kyrgyzstan’s Transport and Communications Minister Tilyk Tekbaev said information about the project’s suspension was “inaccurate.”

“We are actively in discussions with China and Uzbekistan… [and] Work will resume once the project’s funding model is finalized. Careful consideration of this extensive project is critical,” he said.

However, in late November, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Japarov admitted that China had lost interest in CKU.

“As you know, geopolitics have changed, alliances have changed. All these are obstacles to the progress of the project,” Japarov said during a meeting with Kyrgyzstan lawmakers. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, he added Stan “needs this road. And China, our friend, is trying to dissuade us from this project.”

Kyrgyzstan is determined to build

Despite the obstacles, the Kyrgyz government is not prepared to put CKU on hold.

Speaking at the EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity Global Gateway Investor Forum in Brussels in late January, Bakyt Torobayev, Deputy Chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet, said that CKU is a modern Kyrgyz effort. largest project.

“We believe that in the near future the first rail line will be laid, marking an important milestone in realizing the project,” he said.

Japarov said at a meeting with members of parliament in November that Kyrgyzstan had allocated $500 million from its national budget for CKU.

The Bishkek expert said if CKU was shelved, “it would cause huge public embarrassment to the Kyrgyz government,” which has invested significant resources and time in the project.