Is Maldives referendum a win for India?

Pro-China Mohamed Muizou’s party won an outright majority in Maldives elections, in what was seen as a setback for India. However, experts do not believe this was an anti-India vote and New Delhi has lost all influence in the island nation.

However, experts warn that a victory for Muizu’s party, the People’s National Congress Received 66 seats out of 86 declared It could ultimately embolden radical Islamists in the archipelago.

The victory of Muizur’s Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is seen as an anti-India vote as he himself won the September 2023 presidential election in the “India Quit” movement and has been pushing for the return of the few Indian soldiers stationed in the country India.

Muizu supports China on policy and seeks to reduce the country’s dependence on neighboring India. Everyone, from domestic to international media, saw the Maldives parliamentary election results as a setback for India.

Expert IndiaToday.In said in an interview that he does not think this election is a victory for anti-India sentiments.

“I don’t think a vote for President Mohammad Muizul’s People’s National Council is a vote for India in any sense. Foreign policy does play a role to an extent, but usually it is domestic policy that determines who people vote for ,” Manohar Parrikar Research Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (IDSA).

“The current parliament has blocked three ministers that President Mohammad Muizul wants to appoint. The people must want to give the president greater mandate to implement the changes he wants,” Smruti Patnaik said.

President Mohamed Muizou has urged voters to give him a majority in parliament so that he can quickly fulfill his campaign promises. The outgoing Maldivian parliament blocked the nomination of three cabinet members nominated by Muizou.

Gulbin Sultana, associate fellow at the South Asia Center at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), said the People’s National Congress’s absolute majority was more about strengthening the Muslim Izu’s power.

“The Maldives are not just voting on foreign policy so we cannot say it is a vote on India. People are disappointed with the performance of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) during the previous Ibrahim Solih government and voters may want to pass Giving the ruling party an absolute majority gives President Muizu an opportunity to fulfill his electoral promises,” Gulbin Sultan told IndiaToda.In.

Muizu and the People’s National Council are pro-China, while the Democratic Party is leaning towards India.

Muizur and his India Go Out movement

Smruti Pattanaik said: “Over the past six or seven months, President Muizu has fulfilled his promise to have Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives.”

Muizou called China “one of the Maldives’ closest allies and development partners” and made his first trip to Beijing as the president of the Maldives. This goes against the tradition of the Maldivian president visiting India first.

Muizul also set a deadline of May 10 for the withdrawal of 89 Indian troops and support staff from the Maldives. According to reports, India has replaced military personnel responsible for flying and maintaining two helicopters and an aircraft with civilian personnel.

Muizu’s insistence on troop withdrawal, a key campaign promise, has strained bilateral ties.

India continues to provide aid and investment to Maldives

However, the Maldives is an import-dependent country and relies heavily on India.

Smruti Patnaik told India Today: “For its part, India has continued to provide aid to the Maldives regardless of the ‘India Quit’ movement, which shows that the Indian government has historically been connected to the Maldivian people. .”

In fact, India will spend about 7.71 billion rupees ($93 million) on projects in the Maldives from 2023 to 2024, almost double the budget of $4 billion.

Islamic radicalization intensifies in Maldives

One thing experts have been warning about is the spread of Islamic radicalism in the archipelago nation.

“Muizou’s leadership in the Maldives coincides with growing concerns about the radicalization of Muslims. Strategy and military expert Lieutenant General Syed Atta Hasnan (retd) had earlier told India Today that Muizur’s policy may reflect an attempt to regain ideological influence.

According to a 2022 report by the Lowry Institute, Muizou’s party predecessor Abdullah Yameen, between 2013 and 2018, “the number of Maldivian fighters who traveled to Syria to join the Islamic State (IS) per capita (200 people) ranks first in the world.”

The Maldives is likely to continue its policy of tolerating militancy and radicalism.

“Given past experience, a victory for the People’s National Council led by Muizou, who linked nationalism, language and Islam during the presidential election, is likely to intensify radicalization and violent extremism in the Maldives,” said Djurbin. Sultan told India Today.

“There are several areas where Muizou may not take action against growing radicalization. Nor has the Maldivian government taken much effective action against radicalization over the past five years,” Maldives Observer said.

Maldives aims to review international projects

Risks to India also include several projects in the Maldives. The Maldives government has committed to review several international projects, including those in India, and its clear majority in parliament gives it the ability to do so.

“The Maldives government wants to review multiple projects, not just those with India. Therefore, with the People’s National Council gaining an absolute majority, President Muizu will easily get parliamentary approval to implement his policy decisions,” Gurbin Sultana said.

However, she warned that it would be inappropriate to say that India has lost all control and influence in the Maldives “due to the economic conditions and debt burden of the Maldives”.

“Besides China, Muizul has been engaging with Thailand and Turkey, but to what extent can he rely on these countries? Therefore, Muizul must take a more pragmatic approach to reduce dependence on India,” she said. “India should also look at how to maintain influence without resorting to any knee-jerk reaction,” she added.

While Muizu’s ANC’s absolute majority was a setback for India, it cannot be seen as a vote against India. However, India needs to be wary of increasingly aggressive trends in the Maldives.