Iran vows to avenge Israeli embassy attack, but not cause serious escalation: sources

Iran has sent a signal to Washington that it will respond to Israel’s attack on the Syrian embassy in a way that avoids a serious escalation and will not act hastily amid Tehran’s demands, including a truce in Gaza, Iranian sources said.

Sources said Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian delivered Iran’s message to Washington during a visit to the Gulf Arab state of Oman on Sunday. Oman often acts as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington.

A White House spokesman declined to comment on any messages from Iran but said the United States had communicated with Iran that it was not involved in the attack on the embassy.

Iran’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment. The Omani government did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment during Eid al-Fitr.

A source familiar with U.S. intelligence was not aware of the message being conveyed through Oman, but said Iran had been “very clear” that its response to the attack on the Damascus embassy compound would be “controlled” and “non-escalatory.” and plans to “use regional proxies to launch multiple attacks against Israel.”

Diplomatic messages suggest Iran is taking a cautious approach as it weighs how to respond to the April 1 attack, in a bid to deter Israel from further such actions but avoid a military escalation that could put the United States in trouble.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that Israel “must be punished and deserves to be punished”, calling it tantamount to an attack on Iranian soil. Israel has not confirmed whether it was responsible, but the Pentagon said it was.

The attack killed a top Iranian general and marked an escalation in the violence that has engulfed the region since the war in Gaza began. Tehran is careful to avoid playing any direct role in regional spillovers, while supporting groups launching attacks from Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militias have not attacked U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq since early February.

An Iranian source did not rule out the possibility that members of the Iran-backed resistance axis could attack Israel at any time – an option analysts have flagged as a possible means of retaliation.

Amirab Abdullahian told a meeting in Oman that Tehran was willing to de-escalate if demands were met, including a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, which Israel has ruled out as it seeks to crack down on Hamas, sources said .

Iran is also seeking to restart talks over its controversial nuclear program, the sources said. Those talks have been deadlocked for nearly two years, with each side accusing the other of making unreasonable demands.

Tehran also sought assurances that the United States would not be involved in Iran’s “controlled attacks” on Israel, but the United States rejected the request in a response through Oman, the sources said.

A source familiar with U.S. intelligence said Iran’s retaliatory strikes against the U.S. would not “escalate” “because they don’t want the U.S. involved,” suggesting Iran would not direct its proxy militias in Syria and Iraq to target the U.S. the power of these countries.

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that Iran had threatened “a major attack against Israel” and that he had told Netanyahu that “our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad to counter these threats from Iran and its proxies” “.

Israel says it will respond to any Iranian attack.

“If Iran launches an attack from its territory, Israel will respond and launch an attack in Iran,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in an article published in Farsi and Hebrew on the X website on Wednesday.

Iran’s “problem”

Iranian diplomatic experts said that Tehran’s tough demands are a typical tough attitude it adopts in negotiations. But the contacts still signal its interest in avoiding a major conflict.

Gregory Blue, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said Khamenei was “in a strategic conundrum.”

He said: “Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain the credibility of its resistance front allies. But on the other hand, retaliation to restore deterrence may bring about a larger and more damaging Israeli response,” he said. And it will probably require U.S. assistance.”

Iranian sources said the United States has asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow diplomatic space, and warned Tehran that the United States would support Israel in the event of a direct attack.

Iranian sources said Iran believes Netanyahu aims to drag Tehran into a war, so its retaliation is likely to be restrained, avoid direct attacks on Israeli territory and potentially attract Tehran’s allies.

The U.S. Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iraq and asked them to send a message to Iran urging it to ease tensions with Israel, a person familiar with the matter said.

A source familiar with the issue said the United States was likely to agree to resume nuclear talks if a conflagration could be prevented.

“If we are talking about negotiations rather than a deal, then the price seems worth it if the reward is minimizing the risk of regional escalation that the United States could find itself in,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity. people spoke.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma is “finding a way to retaliate that saves face without losing its mind.”

“Israel is more unpredictable than the United States,” he said. “The supreme leader is clearly concerned that attacks on Israel may only fuel the counter-escalation he may wish to avoid, rather than exerting the deterrent effect he hopes to achieve.”