New Delhi:

Cumulative rainfall in India during the 2024 monsoon season is likely to be above normal and La Niña conditions are likely to emerge in August-September, the IMD said on Monday.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall across the country, and climate change further exacerbates the variability of the rainfall system.

Climate scientists say the number of rainy days is declining, while heavy rainfall events (short periods of increased rainfall) are increasing, leading to more frequent droughts and floods.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, told a press conference here that based on data between 1951 and 2023, India has experienced nine times of La Niña during the monsoon season following the El Niño event. Above normal rainfall.

He said India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June-September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent of the long-term average rainfall (87 centimeters).

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected during the monsoon season. Additionally, the Northern Hemisphere has very little snow cover. These conditions are favorable for India’s southwest monsoon, he said.

Currently, El Niño is mild. It is expected to turn neutral by the start of the monsoon season. Mohapatra said models show that thereafter, the situation in Lalina is likely to emerge in August-September.

In 2023, an El Niño year, cumulative rainfall in India was “below average” – 820 mm, compared with the long-term average of 868.6 mm. Until 2023, India has recorded “normal” and “above normal” rainfall during the monsoon season for four consecutive years.

El Niño – the periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean – has been linked to weakening monsoons and dry conditions in India.

Three large-scale climate phenomena are considered when predicting monsoon season rainfall.

The first is El Niño, the second is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to the difference in warming between the east and west sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the third is the snow cover in the northern Himalayas and Eurasia. , which also affects the Indian monsoon through differential heating of the land.

The southwest monsoon brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is critical to the agricultural sector. Agriculture accounts for approximately 14% of the country’s GDP.

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