IMF upgrades US growth outlook as Trump’s tariffs cause less disruption than expected

US and global economies will grow slightly more than previously estimated this year trump The administration’s tariffs have so far proven less disruptive than expected International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, though the full impact of those policies is still emerging.

The United States economy will grow 2% in 2025, the IMF estimates in its influential semi-annual forecast, the World Economic Outlook. This is slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast in the IMF’s last update in July and 1.8% in April. The IMF said the US should grow at 2.1% next year, just one-tenth of a percentage point higher than its previous estimate.

Meanwhile, the global economy will grow 3.2% this year, higher than the IMF’s July 3% estimate, and 3.1% in 2026, the same as its previous estimate.

The figures represent somewhat of a round-trip for the IMF: In January, before Trump began imposing tariffs, it had projected global growth of 3.3%, just slightly higher than its latest estimate. Although the US and world economies have performed better than expected, it is too early to say they are in the clear, the IMF said, as Trump continues to threaten tariffs and changes in international trade patterns may take time.

The reasons for the better performance “are clear,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a blog post.

“The United States negotiated trade deals with various countries and provided many concessions,” Gourinchas wrote. “Most countries avoided retaliation, instead keeping the trading system largely open. The private sector also proved agile, front-loading imports and rapidly rearranging supply chains.”

By front-loading imports, many companies were able to stock up on goods before the tariffs were implemented, enabling them to avoid or delay price increases.

Yet many of those factors merely reflect “temporary relief rather than underlying strength in economic fundamentals,” the IMF report said.

The IMF also said that import price data into the US shows that so far importers and retailers are paying most of the tariffs, not foreign companies, as many Trump administration officials have predicted. The IMF said that over time, these companies could pass on the burden of price increases to consumers.

The IMF Outlook said there are signs that some negative aspects of higher tariffs are beginning to emerge. According to , core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, reached 2.9%. federal Reserveup from 2.7% a year earlier. Hiring has almost ground to a halt, which may partly reflect a more cautious approach by many companies in light of the uncertainty created by higher tariffs.

The IMF’s forecasts are slightly more optimistic than the expectations of many private sector economists. The National Association for Business Economics, a group of academic and business economists, projected Monday that the U.S. will grow only 1.8% this year and 1.7% in 2026.

Nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed by NABE said they think the administration’s duties are nevertheless slowing growth by half a percentage point.

Gourinchas said other trends are offsetting some of the shortcomings of the tariffs in the US. For example, restrictions on immigration have led to a reduced supply of workers and slowed hiring. As a result, the unemployment rate remains low.

An artificial intelligence-driven investment boom in data centers and computing power has also boosted the economy, Gourinchas said in his blog post.

ChinaMeanwhile, it has taken the hit of US tariffs by sending more of its goods Europe and Asia rather than the United States, and its currency has depreciated, making its exports cheaper. The IMF estimates China’s economy will expand 4.8% this year and 4.2% in 2026, the same rate as in July.

In Europe, Germany is promoting growth by increasing government spending to build up its military, Gourinchas said. The IMF now expects the 20 countries that use the euro to grow by 1.2% this year, up from forecasts of 1% in July and 1.1% next year, the same as three months ago.

The IMF is a lending organization of 191 countries that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and reduce global poverty.