How Pakistan is gearing up for orchestrated elections

The military has directly ruled Pakistan for more than three decades.

The Pakistani military manipulated the electoral process to install a friendly government. Pakistan, which is experiencing a severe economic crisis, will hold a national election on February 8.

The electoral process was orchestrated by the Pakistan Army through the caretaker government, which was constitutionally mandated to hold elections.

The military has directly ruled Pakistan for more than three decades. It weakens democratic institutions to the point where it continues to influence policy even when not directly in power.

This election is no exception.

The previous government elected, led by cricket icon, popular leader and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan, was a patronage government. That was until he clashed with the military and was ousted in a vote of no confidence.

He has now been charged and prosecuted in multiple criminal cases. In fact, on the eve of the vote, he had been jailed three times.

Imran’s conviction disqualifies him from running, but it is unlikely to be quashed through an appeal to higher judicial authorities before the February 8 election.

The court proceedings took place behind bars and the sentence appears to have been staged to demoralize his party and supporters on the eve of the election.

Imran’s party and its top leadership were systematically destroyed not only through judicial proceedings but also through an unprecedented crackdown on PKR leaders across the country in an effort to persuade them to withdraw from the race.

On top of that, the Electoral Commission refused to allow his party to use its official symbol, the cricket bat, which was later endorsed by the judiciary.

The party’s candidates will therefore be forced to contest as independents in each constituency under a different electoral symbol. This will make it difficult for rural and uneducated voters to identify with the party.

Meanwhile, former Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) or PML (N) prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who until recently was a judicial fugitive and in self-exile in the UK, has been brought home.

The judiciary has been accommodating in his case, not only granting him bail in all cases pending against him but also allowing him to contest the polls.

His potential electoral victory is widely believed to have been orchestrated by the military.

Under such circumstances, neither human rights organizations nor public intellectuals in Pakistan hope that the election will be free and fair.

The main reason for this is that the electoral landscape was rigged so that the largest political party, PTI, and the country’s most popular political leader, Imran Khan, were excluded from the elections.

However, Imran’s verdict could disrupt the army’s plans.

The repressive tactics of the “establishment” (a code name for Pakistan’s military and bureaucratic elite), and in particular Imran’s lengthy imprisonment, are likely to spark a new wave of anger among the party’s popular support base.

This could lead to a “wave of sympathy” among voters for the party’s candidates running as independents. They can even abstain from voting. Either way, the resulting political polarization will persist beyond unilateral election results, exacerbating political instability.

Regardless of careful planning, the outcome of the election will be difficult to predict. Local patronage and allegiance networks favor older parties – the PTI is relatively new, having been founded in 1996 and winning its first National Assembly seat in 2002.

As urbanization continues to expand, the balance between urban and rural areas has changed. There is also unpredictability among first-time voters – 23.5 million new voters have been added since the last election in 2018.

Other immeasurable factors are overall voter turnout and the role of spoilers such as Istehkam-i-Pakistan, a king’s party founded by PTI deserters.

The dire state of Pakistan’s economy is a structural problem that will have to be faced by whoever forms the next government.

The country has a heavy debt burden, daily necessities are becoming increasingly more expensive, and the national currency has plummeted. Its faltering economy has pushed Pakistan to the brink of default – in June 2023, Pakistan reluctantly revived a long-stalled $6 billion International Monetary Fund bailout program.

Sharif, a three-time prime minister and head of a business empire, has a proven track record of developing and getting the economy back on track.

However, if the election is seen as contested and political turmoil ensues, even he may not be able to resolve the crisis by introducing the tough structural reforms required for an IMF bailout to bring about the necessary stability.

Bharat Bhushan Holds a strategic development role within 360info and is South Asia Editor leading work across the region. He is a veteran Indian journalist and columnist and former host of the foreign affairs program on Rajya Sabha TV. Bharat has served as editor of Catch News, founding editor of Mail Today, executive editor of Hindustan Times, editor of Delhi Telegraph, editor of Express News Service, Washington correspondent of Indian Express and The Times 》Assistant Editor India.

Originally published on creative commons go through 360 information.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)