Pakistan’s much-anticipated general election The incident took place on February 8, 2024, and citizens of the South Asian country hoped that it might be a step towards ending the political uncertainty in the country.

But days later, it’s unclear how the vote turned out.Both sides are leading competitors Victory declaredamong the charges Ballot Rigging and Disputed Ballots.

Dialogue interviewed Ayesha Jalal, expert on Pakistani political history He teaches at Tufts University about what the election results mean and what happens next.

Is it clear who will rule Pakistan next?

The current results mean that no single party can form a government on its own. Therefore, coalition government at the federal level is inevitable.

This is where things get tricky.Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – Leadership Imprisoned former prime minister, Pakistan cricket hero Imran Khan – has become The largest party in the National Assembly, some 93 candidates won seats as “independents”.They must run as independents because the party Ban the use of its electoral symbolsThe cricket bat came after a three-judge bench of the Supreme Court ruled that PTI failed to hold intra-party elections as per its constitution.

But there are a total of 265 seats in parliamentmeaning the PTI’s numbers are still far below what is needed to form a government on its own.

Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) is in second place with 78 seats, which may increase with the addition of independent members of parliament allied to the PMLN.The party is led by Shahbaz Sharif, who will succeed Khan as prime minister in 2022, and his brother, three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, and is considered to have Powerful Pakistan Army Supportbut its performance in the election did not meet expectations.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) ranked third with 54 seats. This allows it to help another party form a coalition at the federal level.

Is PTI, with the most seats, the frontrunner to lead the coalition government?

The PTI has made it clear it wants to form the government on its own and believes its mandate has been stolen.

Even before the final election results are announced, PTI claims to have won around 170 seats – enough to enable it to form a government. But there seems to be no evidence.

This indicates PTI is not ready to accept It did not receive enough votes to form a government outright. Instead, the party challenged the election results, claiming its vote was illegally suppressed, and PTI has formally lodged complaints in 18 constituencies.

I believe a Muslim League-led alliance between other parties is more likely. But the question is whether this will satisfy voters, who voted for PTI as the largest party in parliament.

This doesn’t sound stable. Yeah?

But in fact, it’s not. Pakistan is now entering an uncertain situation, which is actually a post-election political crisis.

Alliances are not uncommon in Pakistani politics, but they are not easy to manage.they can become bulky, weak and easily manipulated.

It also makes it harder for any government to pursue the bold economic plans the country needs to move forward and escape the deep structural problems plaguing the economy, such as limited tax base and reliance on handouts from other countries. Solving this problem requires making difficult and potentially unpopular decisions, which are even more difficult when government is divided and popular mandate is limited.

The country may need another national vote soon to ensure a more stable and viable government.

The election was seen as flawed in the West. Is this fair?

By Pakistani standards, the actual voting took place relatively peacefully.A horrific attack occurred Turbulent Balochistan on the eve of the election Caused 28 deaths. But fears of widespread violence on election day did not materialize.

Although there are some unfair Limit political activities inside approach As far as the elections are concerned, the elections themselves appear to be largely credible by Pakistani standards, as the country’s foreign ministry has been Quick proof.

The fact that the PTI, a party that is not favored by Pakistan’s current senior military leadership, is performing so well suggests that there is no direct, sweeping manipulation. In some places, PTI voters were harassed, but this was clearly not enough to significantly boost their overall votes.

One cannot compare democracy in Pakistan with democracy in the US or any other country. The problem with many outside observers of Pakistani politics is that their rhetoric is normative—that is, they view elections in Pakistan through the lens of what is often seen as the norm elsewhere.

But politics in Pakistan is unique. The country is a military-dominated country with generals long involved in national politics – and elections.

But however chaotic, the alternative to managed elections is martial law. Flawed democracy is better than military jackboots.

What’s more, the election itself took place relatively peacefully.There has been a lot of criticism in the West Cellphone and mobile internet services blocked on election day. To outside observers, this may appear to be an unacceptable disruption to the electoral process.But in Pakistan, there are Real concerns about mobile phones Used to detonate explosive devices.

Will anyone be satisfied with the election results?

Ironically, while the PTI’s strong showing represents an anti-establishment vote – more specifically, an anti-army vote – a divided national mandate means the Army high command has reason to be satisfied with the results.

A divided National Assembly and a weak government play into the hands of the military. If the Popular Liberation Front governs as the main party in a coalition government, it will be in a relatively weak position and will need the support of the military, especially if the PPP mounts widespread protests against the election results.

Are there any positives from this election?

Yes, as long as the process of seeking the support of the people is allowed to continue. But most believe the negatives outweigh the positives, and the 2024 election is seen as as rigged and controlled as the 2018 election, if not more.

The number of voters this time is It is estimated to be around 48%, down from 51% in 2018. The demographics are encouraging. Young people play a vital role; 44% of voters are under 35 years old. Women also played a greater role in voting – more women ran for office and won seats.

Party politics aside, the results show that old tactics of voter intimidation and suppression are largely ineffective.As expected, a large number of Khan’s legal sentence The general election is just weeks away and his continued imprisonment is likely to dampen his popularity and mean PTI supporters will stay home. This obviously didn’t happen.

But what they help achieve may only perpetuate Pakistan’s political woes as it enters a new, uncertain period.

(author: Ayesha Jalal does not work for, consult, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant relationships beyond her academic appointment. )

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