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wWelcome to the first referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency: Election Night 2025.
For much of this year, the only evidence that public opinion had turned against Trump was the occasional special election or judicial race in Wisconsin — approval ratings, aside.
but as inside washington broke down last monthThe gubernatorial race and other big-ticket statewide races. And it couldn’t be any better than the mayoral race in New York that could determine whether socialist progressive insurgent Zoharan Mamdani can get a clear mandate to govern, whether two moderate Democratic congresswomen can win the governorship in states filled with suburbanites and voters of color — and Can Democrats redraw their congressional maps in California, Which will boost Gavin Newsom’s presidential aspirations,
inside washington Has been following these races avidly, checking out fundraising, polling and early voting. While sometimes we’re wrong and quick to admit it, here are our boldest predictions for tomorrow night’s elections in the heart of Dixie, the Garden State, the Big Apple and the Golden State.
Virginia: Can Democrats win back the suburbs?
This is easiest with the old crystal ball. Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer who flipped a red district in the suburbs of Richmond to blue in 2018, will crush Republican Lt. Gov. Winsom Earl-Sears.
While Sears has been deeply immersed in transphobia, it has failed amid the government shutdown and federal job cuts by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, which particularly harmed workers in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. Sears also fell foul of Spanberger in a debate when he said “this is not discriminationWhen Spanberger reported that Earl-Sears would ban gay marriage.
What matters is how big Spanberger’s victory will be. Democrats are expected to win a supermajority in the state House of Representatives, which would allow them to easily redraw their congressional maps. Polling shows Spanberger has a lead of between 10 and 14 points.
Final prediction: Spanberger wins by 12 percent and gets a supermajority.
Virginia Attorney General race: A high-stakes race surrounded by scandal
If Spanberger wins the governor’s race in Virginia, the race for attorney general is going to be extremely slim.
While the Governor in Virginia cannot run for a consecutive term, the Attorney General can do so. Republican Jason Miyares vacated the seat in 2021 and will likely be a future candidate for governor. Unlike Earle-Sears, he has earned Trump’s endorsement.
And he’s running against an incredibly flawed candidate in Democrat Jay Jones, who came under fire after text messages surfaced that he imagined shooting the former speaker. State Assemblyman Todd Gilbert And calling their kids “little fascists.”
Polling shows the race is either very heated or Jones is in the lead. If the Democrats win, he would likely join the lawsuits against the Trump administration. But if Miyares wins, he could serve as a bulwark against the Spanberger administration and the General Assembly.
Final Prediction: Based on Spanberger’s much larger margin of victory, Jones wins by less than a point.
New Jersey: Can Trump’s non-white working-class coalition hold on?
As New Jersey’s most famous son said, you can’t start a midterm fire without an off-year spark. In 2024, Kamala Harris won it by just under six points, which was almost ten points less than Joe Biden won in 2020.
Trump did this by flipping Passaic County, home to a large Latino population. He cut into the Democratic margin in Hudson County, part of which became known as “Havana on the Hudson” due to its large Cuban-American population.
Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who narrowly defeated incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, is hoping to retain his election against Representative Mickey Sherrill. Sheryl Spanberger and Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) are “national security Democrats” in the framework. Although he lacks Spanberger’s charisma, he has aggressively attacked Ciattarelli, especially the latter. Ciattarelli’s expedition obtained his personal Navy records.,
And according to VoteHub, which tracks early voting, Democrats Makes up about 51 percent In-person early voting numbers in the Garden State, while Republicans are only 29 percent.
Final prediction: Sherrill will win by 7 percentage points
New York City: Mamdani Mandate
There is no dispute that Zohran Mamdani will become the next mayor of New York City. Everyone wants to know whether he wins by such a big margin that he gets a clear mandate to rule.
While Mamdani made headlines with his message about affordability, he also benefited from the fact that incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary and disgraced former Governor Andrew Cuomo suffered a significant loss in the primary after he resigned following sexual misconduct allegations.
To get the mandate, Mamdani will not only have to win but also get a clear majority. This does not mean living on the margins alongside Latinos, Asian-Americans, and young dynamic professional whites; This will require them to cut into Cuomo’s marginalization with black voters, the beating heart of the Democratic Party establishment. So far, Mamdani has the momentum.
Final prediction: Mamdani got majority, but could not reach 55 percent. A safe bet is around 52 to 53 percent.
California: midterms and the future of the Democratic Party
No Democratic elected official has made himself Faced even more anti-Trump resistance than California Governor Gavin NewsomWhen Texas began its efforts to add five safe Republican seats, Newsom responded by saying that he “meet fire with fire” and led a ballot initiative known as Proposition 50, allowing a one-time partisan redistricting of congressional districts to respond to the Texas gerrymander.
This is an audacious step. But Democrats, along with Newsom and his allies, have invested $129 million to support the initiative constitutes 72 percent of the total expenditureAccording to AdImpact. If it passes, Democrats could get around the non-partisan redistricting commission and take away seats that would put Republicans out of jobs and give Democrats a boost in the 2026 midterms.
Furthermore, this would undoubtedly put Newsom at the forefront of the 2028 presidential field, and it’s not even close. The Institute for Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley had a 60 percent turnout for the initiative. The percentage of early voting is in favor of the Democrats. By turning this initiative into a referendum on Trump, it seems the Democrats have the right message.
Final Prediction: Proposition 50 passed with 58 percent of the vote.
Of course, take these predictions with a grain of salt. In the past, I have predicted Kamala Harris will win the presidencyTrump will choose a woman as his running mate and said Dobbs Impact after Supreme Court Overturned roe vs wade it won’t matter In 2022, only to think it will be in 2024. But sometimes, I get some things right, like saying Harris will choose Tim Walz as her running mate before Biden drops out, Trump’s victory in Nevada and getting Within one percentage point of Raphael Warnock’s Senate victory. In 2022.
Feel free to come roast me on Wednesday morning.