Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened that Israel “must and should be punished.”
Iran has vowed to punish Israel over a recent attack on its consulate in Damascus, with blame widely blamed on Israel and fears growing that a looming response could spark a wider conflict.
However, experts say Iran could retaliate in many different ways, and not all pose the same risk of escalation.
France advised its citizens not to travel to Israel, the Palestinian territories, Iran or its ally Lebanon, as it warned on Friday that a response could be imminent.
But exactly what happens next may depend on how Iran chooses to retaliate, which could be in the context of a war between Israel and Hamas.
David Kafa, a Middle East expert at the French think tank Jean-Jaures Foundation, said the fact that none of the governments involved was willing to provoke an escalation would not necessarily prevent a full-blown crisis.
“Miscarriage of justice is entirely possible. Deterrence has a significant psychological effect,” he told AFP.
“Warring parties are vulnerable to any mistakes or missteps, which could lead to a chain of cascading consequences.”
On April 1, the Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital was hit by an air strike, killing 16 people, including 7 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
The most senior figure killed was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the senior commander of the Quds Force, which is responsible for Iran’s foreign military operations.
Iran and Syria blamed the attack on Israel, which has not confirmed its involvement but is widely believed to be responsible – including among its allies.
– ‘Tehran does not want direct war’ –
“Israel’s airstrikes on the facility were intended to tell Tehran that it would be held accountable for the actions of Hamas and other non-state allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen,” said the Soufan Center, a nonprofit organization analyzing global security challenges. .
After the attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Israel “must be punished and will be punished.”
The White House insists the United States remains steadfast in its support for its ally Israel, stressing on Friday that the threat from Iran is “real.”
The United States also sent Kurila, the top commander in the Middle East and commander of the U.S. Central Command, to Israel for discussions.
Iran has an arsenal capable of striking a wide range of Israeli targets, including infrastructure, airports or major energy production sites.
The Soufan Center said the posture taken by Israel and the United States “suggests they expect Tehran to attack using its ballistic and cruise missiles as well as armed drones.”
But since the consulate attack, Iran has remained vague about how it would respond.
“Iran is still threatening to respond while sending a message regionally and internationally that it is looking for political options beyond a military response,” said independent Middle East analyst Eva Kululiotis.
“What is certain is that Tehran does not want a direct war with Israel, at least at this stage,” she told AFP.
-“Only bad choices”-
Former French diplomat Michel Duclos wrote on the website of the Institut Montaigne think tank that Iran “faces a difficult situation.”
“There is no question that it is not yet sufficiently sure of its own strength to comfortably consider escalating conflict with Israel,” he wrote.
“But if it doesn’t respond, it risks losing some credibility in the region, including among armed groups that have pledged allegiance to Iran,” he added.
Farzan Sabet, an analyst at the Graduate School in Geneva, said Iran funds armed groups in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon that make up the so-called “axis of resistance” against Israel, and they appear to be more aggressive than ever Be on the front lines. .
Sabet wrote on X that Iran may respond by asking these groups to increase the number of attacks or increase weapons deliveries.
“This option is easier to deny, less politically costly and less likely to fight back directly.”
Other possible options include attacks on Israeli diplomatic missions abroad, which has the disadvantage of involving a third country.
Iran may also attempt to “launch terrorist attacks against U.S. diplomatic facilities in the region and beyond,” the Soufan Center said.
Kafa said that with the April 1 attack, “Israel hopes to change the rules of the game and hit the octopus on the head, not just the tentacles, to force Iran out of its shadow war.”
Now, “Iranians have only bad choices,” he added.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
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