Even if recession fears recede, January's growth won't change the wider problem of Britain's stagnant economy

Was that then? Just weeks after we learned that the UK was in recession, today we learned that we may have emerged from it.

It’s too early to know for sure — after all, the official definition of a recession depends on whether the economy grows or shrinks each quarter, but for some reason, no one is entirely sure.

Two consecutive quarters of contraction constitute a recession; a quarter of growth means you’re out.

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Today’s data covers just one month: January. But that month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) calculated our gross domestic product – the most comprehensive measure of economic activity – increased by 0.2%.

That’s more or less what economists expected, and considering they also expected another month or two of growth, that means there’s a good chance of a positive quarter, so economic recession it’s over.

This would obviously be seen as good news, and of course it is. But the bigger picture is more complicated.

The recession we’re experiencing isn’t quite a recession. Typically, recessions are characterized not only by a decline in gross domestic product (and a substantial decline at that) but also by sharp increases in unemployment and bankruptcies. They usually last for quite some time.

This recession is shallow—perhaps the shallowest in modern history. There is still a good chance it will be completely revised (remember, these GDP figures are only the first draft of economic history and may be revised significantly as subsequent data becomes available).

unemploymentAlthough it is trending upward, it is still at a low level.

In fact, it would be more accurate to describe the economy as flattening. There was a little bit of growth over the past month, but then there was a bit of contraction last month.

Looking at the data over a longer period, you’ll see a very long and slightly bumpy line that’s almost difficult to take off.

This is a wider problem for the UK – a clear lack of motivation. The question is whether that will change this year.

this bank of england The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects economic growth to be relatively slow, while in fact interest rates Still up 5.25% is part of the explanation.

But these rates are expected to fall later this year (especially when inflation falls to the central bank’s 2% target).this government tax cuts It may also stimulate consumer spending.

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