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EWhenever I talk to Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they go nowhere,” said donald trump, After his latest peace initiativein this time ukraineonce again Russians ran into the mud of confusion,
Despite the warmth shown at the Alaska summit in August and Moscow’s history of credibility regarding developments, it seems likely that Donald Trump could do so. Have finally lost patience with Vladimir PutinTrue, before calming down with another lengthy telephone conversation with the Kremlin, he had in the past expressed concerns that President Putin was pressuring him. This time, Putin may have pushed his luck too far.
For a change – and this is potentially an important step – rather than engage Putin, Mr Trump has taken decisive action. directly against Russian interestsban on RussiaThe largest natural resources giants, Rosneft and Lukoil. This is absolutely good news for Ukraine and Europe. This may also prove decisive to resolve the war,
Apart from increasing arms deliveries, including the long-range Tomahawk missiles for which Volodymyr Zelensky practically begged Mr Trump earlier this week, this is the easiest way for Ukraine to force Russia to sue for peace in the coming weeks. destabilize its weak economyThis is something that the United States, in conjunction with increasingly hostile Europe and other Western countries, can still achieve. Russia’s relatively primitive and surprisingly small economy is vulnerable to collapse because fully half of its GDP is devoted to war production, it suffers badly from inflation and is critically dependent on energy exports. Without lucrative sales of oil and gas, the war machine cannot support Russia’s armed forces.
Is it too much to hope for? This should not happen, if Mr. Trump remains patient and does not give in. blandishments from moscowIt has been clear for months that Russia is unwilling to accept Mr Trump’s proposal to stop the conflict along existing battle lines and “everyone go home”. This will not suit Putin, whose forces are working very slowly But steady progress is being made on the groundHe apparently calculates that the Russian “meat grinder” and the bombing of Ukrainian civilians will ultimately allow him to prevail before he runs out of money. The West’s job is to ensure that this does not happen.
Russia is headed for decline, as it has been for some time. If Mr. Trump is going to use US economic leverage as a weapon to accelerate that process, it will certainly bring The Russians finally came to the tableAnd will significantly strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. From there, a real process can begin to find a political solution to the war and guarantee the security of Ukraine and Europe.
As a plan and a way to end the war, it makes sense to tighten sanctions against the Putin regime. However, there is a need, as President Trump has rightly requested, That EU countries stop buying Russian oil and gasThe two main customers are Hungary and Slovakia, which are most sympathetic to the Kremlin. They must be stopped by other EU members, and indeed now by the White House, to finally distance themselves from Russian hydrocarbons. Europeans should also Seize more Russian financial assets for financing Ukrainian arms supplies And to pressure Putin to abandon his imperial ambitions.
The second important factor is How far will China and India go in reducing those sanctions By putting their own export earnings first and trading with Russia. In recent months, President Trump has occasionally shown a willingness to punish them if they defy his will, but both are now enough world powers to be able to resist such pressures. The nightmare for the US and the West would be when the Chinese, Russians, North Koreans and Iranians, as well as some smaller satellites such as Venezuela, would form a modern “axis of evil” in which their interests would be diametrically opposed to those of the Western powers – in effect leading to a new Cold War.
this can’t be allowed to happenThis would require all Western powers, including the US, to exhaust Russia economically and financially, and flood the battlefields with the most advanced weapons that Russia and its allies cannot match, and missile systems to overwhelm Russian military capability.
By the fourth anniversary of Putin’s “special military operation”, which was designed to ensure victory within three weeks, a clear Russian defeat could have been ensured, which could have been disastrous for Putin’s post-war regime. “Peace through strength” is Mr Trump’s motto. We’ll see if he ultimately lives up to it or not.