Court ruling on abortion could disrupt Florida’s November election

The Florida Supreme Court issued two rulings this week that effectively guarantee abortion will be top of mind for many voters in November, potentially driving higher turnout among reproductive rights supporters in the key battleground state.

In an opinion released Monday, the court ruled that Florida’s constitution does not include the right of women in the state to have abortions. The ruling, which cleared the way for the state to implement an abortion ban after six weeks of pregnancy, was passed by the Legislature last year and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Meanwhile, the court found that a constitutional amendment granting abortion rights must go before voters in November, raising the possibility of a six-week ban – one of the strictest in the country. May only be effective for a few months.

complex history

The case over whether Florida’s abortion restrictions are constitutional has a complicated history. The lawsuit is a challenge to the early abortion ban, which blocks the procedure after 15 weeks, that DeSantis signed into law in 2022. The plaintiffs argued that a privacy provision added to the 1980 state constitution protected abortion, a claim the court found unpersuasive.

The recent six-week ban was put on hold pending a court ruling on the case, clearing the way for a stricter ban to take effect 30 days after issuance. Because 6 weeks is when fetal heart tissue begins to develop, such bans are often referred to as “heartbeat” bills.

revision language

The second decision involved adding the following to the state constitution: “No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before the patient is viable or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s health care provider.” The amendment does not change the Legislature’s constitutional authority to require notification of a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion.”

The amendment, known as Amendment 4, would have banned abortions in the state until the baby is viable, the point at which a baby survives outside the womb, which is generally considered to be 24 weeks into pregnancy.

Critics of the language argued that the meaning of the proposed amendment was unclear and should not have been put to a vote, and the court claimed that the amendment was rejected.

mixed reaction

The two rulings gave abortion rights supporters and abortion opponents something to celebrate on Monday.

Florida Defending Liberty, an umbrella group of various pro-abortion rights groups including the American Civil Liberties Union and Planned Parenthood, has pledged to build support for the change through its “Yes on 4” campaign.

Lauren Brenzel, campaign director for Yes on 4, said in a statement: “Today, the court confirmed what we’ve known all along: The Fourth Amendment clearly meets the requirements on the ballot. “We are pleased that Floridians will have the opportunity to vote for Amendment 4 this November and regain their bodily autonomy and freedom from government interference.”

For abortion opponents, Monday’s decision on whether the current abortion ban is constitutional was seen as vindication of their case. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life USA issued a statement calling the decision “a victory for unborn babies who have a heartbeat and can feel pain.”

However, it called on abortion opponents and DeSantis to organize to defeat the proposed constitutional amendment, describing it as the brainchild of large pro-life groups.

“Florida faces what may be its largest fight for the ballot yet, and Governor Ron DeSantis must be at the forefront to protect Florida from the Big Abortion Movement, which is Attempts to eliminate the rights of unborn children, parents, women and girls,” stated.

turnout record

Recent history suggests opponents of the amendment are likely to put up a tough fight in November. The issue has been put before voters in several states since the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, a decades-long ruling that prevented states from outright bans on abortion.

In traditionally liberal states, voters were quick to enshrine abortion rights in state constitutions. However, in some conservative-leaning states such as Ohio and Kentucky, voters are flocking to the polls to express support for retaining state-level abortion rights.

Ohio voters approved a constitutional right to abortion last November, a year after Kentucky voters blocked an effort to strip a similar right from the state’s constitution.

impact on elections

In recent decades, Florida has been considered a “swing state” in U.S. elections. But the state has leaned Republican over the past two election cycles, voting for Donald Trump twice and favoring Republicans in most statewide offices.

President Joe Biden, who will face Trump in the November election, quickly issued a statement reiterating his support for abortion rights in the state and saying he and Vice President Kamala Harris “remain steadfast in our commitment to Committed to protecting reproductive freedom in Florida and across the country.”

Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida who studies the state’s politics, told VOA that the abortion amendment’s presence on the ballot could benefit Biden in the state.

“This will help mobilize liberal progressive, Democratic-leaning voters in Florida,” Jewett said. “Maybe it will also mobilize some independents … who might not otherwise participate in the election.”

Jewett said the overall impact may not be enough to swing the state’s presidential vote to the Democratic camp, but could have a significant impact on other races, including tight races for one of the state’s two U.S. Senate seats.

“I wouldn’t rule out the fact that Biden might be upset — anything is possible,” Jewett said. “But I think it’s more likely to make Democrats competitive up and down the ticket, and Biden would be competitive if he competed , at least they won’t be eliminated.”