CAA: Bengal BJP ambitions hinge on Left Congress performance

Bengal BJP president Sukanta Majumdar claimed that the party would win 35 seats in the state.

Kolkata:

Political analysts say the West Bengal Bharatiya Janata Party is grappling with internal discord, organizational shortcomings and a resurgence of the left-Congress alliance as the party takes on the daunting task of securing 35 Lok Sabha seats in national elections, bringing the CAA to implementation as the key to achieving its goals. achieve its goals.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP performed well in West Bengal, winning 18 seats and garnering 40% vote share. Encouraged by its success, the party set an ambitious goal of winning 35 seats in this election.

While the party relies heavily on the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it also seeks to benefit from the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, although political analysts warn that the CAA could prove to be a boon for the BJP A “double-edged sword”.

They argue that the CAA can unite the Hindu community but will also cause backlash from minority groups.

The BJP’s prospects in West Bengal depend largely on the momentum of the Left-Congress alliance, which is gradually gaining strength in the state’s 42 Lok Sabha constituencies.

West Bengal BJP president Sukanta Majumdar said the party was not only hopeful but also confident of winning 35 seats in the state.

However, some BJP leaders pointed out that the saffron camp faces a series of internal and external challenges in achieving its goals in the state.

“The biggest challenge facing the party is how to bring order to its organization, which has been in tatters since its defeat in the 2021 assembly elections. We still don’t have anyone to appoint booth agents in the over 80,000 booths in the state,” former India said Anupam Hazra, national secretary of the BJP.

Hazra, who has a strained relationship with the current state leadership, claimed that internal conflicts and lack of grassroots coordination have hampered the BJP’s efforts to consolidate its position in the state, as evident from a series of electoral defeats since the 2021 assembly polls. defeat.

Since 2021, eight MLAs and two MPs have switched allegiance to the TMC. Only one of them, Arjun Singh, has returned to the BJP.

In 2019, the BJP secured 40% of the vote share. However, in the 2021 Assembly polls, this ratio dropped slightly to 38%. Despite increasing from 10% of voting rights and three parliamentary seats in 2016 to 77 seats in 2021, they have failed to seize power.

The decline in vote share started in the Babanipur polls, from 35% in May 2021 to 22% in October of the same year, and the trend has continued.

In the other 108 civic body elections, the BJP got only 12.57 per cent votes.

In last year’s panchayat polls, the party secured 22 per cent vote share, ranking third, just 1 per cent less than the left-wing Congress-ISF alliance.

The resurgence of the Left-Congress alliance further complicates the BJP’s electoral strategy and poses a huge challenge to the party.

Till 2021, votes from these parties shifted to the BJP, boosting the growth of the saffron party in the state.

However, after the 2021 assembly elections, the Left and Congress witnessed a resurgence and their alliance wrested the Sagadij seat from the TMC in the 2023 assembly by-elections.

A BJP leader said the re-emergence of the Left Congress-ISF alliance could hamper the saffron party’s consolidation of anti-TMC votes, especially in South Bengal constituencies.

“Since the Left and Congress did not unite in West Bengal for the 2019 polls, we had a clear path to get the entire anti-TMC vote. However, in a triangular race, these votes may get split,” said a senior leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

“However, triangular contests may also provide opportunities for the BJP in certain seats, especially if minority votes are divided. The impact of the Left Congress-ISF alliance is evident in minority-dominated seats, as The Sagadighi by-election polls have seen that,” he said.

The consolidation of anti-TMC votes led to a sharp surge in the BJP’s vote share from 17% in 2014 to 40% in 2019, and its seats increased from 2 to 18.

While the TMC’s vote share increased by 3% to 43%, its assembly seats fell from 34 to 22.

However, the BJP leaders hope to capitalize on the polarization of the majority community, especially in Matua-dominated constituencies, by making the CAA a key issue.

Majumdar claimed that “CAA will help the BJP win big in the elections in the state”.

On the other hand, the BJP did not have as strong an organizational strength as the TMC and failed to successfully counter TMC’s campaign against the CAA’s deprivation of citizenship.

To make matters worse, the All India Matua Sangha, an important organization of the Matua community, has advised its members to apply for Indian citizenship under the new law only after the new government takes over the centre.

“TMC is trying to mislead the public about CAA but they will not succeed,” Majumdar said.

The BJP is also banking on the Sandeshkhali issue, where locals have accused TMC leaders of sexually abusing women in the area.

In north Bengal, where the party has a strong base, the party won seven of the region’s eight seats in 2019, but dissatisfaction over ticket distribution is growing.

Political scientist Sabyasachi Basu Ray Chaudhury said the impact of implementing the CAA remains unclear.

“Either the BJP can benefit from the CAA or it may backfire,” he said.

Political analyst Suhomoy Maitra said the BJP’s electoral performance depends on the performance of the Left-Congress alliance.

“The alliance has the potential to cut into the anti-TMC votes in the state, which is key to the success of the BJP,” he said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)