A series of awards makes it clear: ‘One on one fight’ leads the Oscar race

If there is any doubt, first few days HollywoodThe year-end awards have already made this clear: Paul Thomas Andersonis “one fight after another” oscar The one who walks in the front.

On Monday, “One Battle After Another” won best picture at the 35th Gotham Awards. It was awarded the title of best film on Tuesday new york Film Critics Board. On Wednesday, it won best picture at the National Board of Review Awards, best director for Anderson and acting for Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro and newcomer Chase Infinity.

Expect to hear this phrase a lot: one award after another.

“I really didn’t expect it,” Anderson said of Gothams. “I started thinking I didn’t know what was going on.”

This might be the first and last time Anderson can say that this awards season.

A father-daughter story of political resistance in the face of repeated oppression, “One Battle After Another” has firmly established itself as the film of the moment. With an opening scene depicting a raid on an immigrant detention facility, Anderson’s creation has surprised critics and film lovers alike due to its contemporary relevance in the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term. Even the film’s enemies, such as conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, predicted that it would “win all the Academy Awards.”

Yet Anderson’s film is, in many ways, an Academy Award oddity. It is a critically acclaimed release that skipped film festivals. It is a big budget studio film which was not a hit. In fact, if “One Battle After Another” wins at the Oscars on March 15, it may be one of the only money-losers to win the industry’s top honor.

Small films have increasingly won best film awards. This includes films like “The Hurt Locker,” “Moonlight” and “Nomadland” – films that were much less appreciated at the box office. Hollywood long ago got into the habit of honoring films that largely exist outside its mainstream, franchise-obsessed business. And the notion of what makes a great picture film has become flexible. “Parasite,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and, the most recent winner, “Anora,” have all shaken up traditional notions of Oscar material.

But even the youngest Oscar winners have been commercially successful. Even “CODA,” the pandemic-era 2022 winner that went straight to streaming, was a big win for the then-fledgling Apple TV. Historically, Hollywood likes to reward winners.

“One Battle After Another” represents something different. With a production budget of at least $130 million (some reports have it as much higher) and marketing costs of an additional $70 million, it would have to have an extraordinary post-theatrical afterlife to match it. So far, the Warner Bros. release has grossed $70.6 million domestically and $131.6 million overseas – a huge sum for an adult-oriented, R-rated, auteur-driven film running nearly three hours.

Nevertheless, Variety previously estimated that “One on One Fight” would lose $100 million, a figure that Warner Bros. has disputed. That’s too harsh a label, but that kind of inconsistency could tag “One on One” as the first Best Picture-winning flop.

Awards season still has a long way to go. None of the awards given this week have any direct connection to Academy voters. Some contenders, like A24’s “Marty Supreme,” still haven’t hit theaters. Others, like Focus Features’ “Hamnet”, are still coming. Support is also strong for another Warner Bros. title, Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which could create the stiffest competition for “One Battle After Another.” Both films are returning to IMAX screens on December 12.

But the red bottom line is far from a unique cross to endure this decline. Aside from the blockbuster launches of “Zootopia 2” and “Wicked: For Good,” the wave of potential awards contenders — films like “The Smashing Machine,” “Roughman” and “Christy” — have faded with ticket buyers. It’s been a gut-wrenching collapse for a wide range of contenders, a context that makes the “back-to-back fights” a huge success by comparison.

In fact, the biggest financial disadvantage against it is that it cost too much to make – arguably too much. At a time when very few films like “One Battle After Another” get the green light, let alone such a budget, the cost of “One Battle After Another” can also be seen as a mark of respect. Here’s a movie that wins, loses, or draws, in a kind of filmmaking battle that’s in the ring. To quote DiCaprio’s Bob Ferguson: “Viva la Revolution!”