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SAfter assuming the office of US President for the second time earlier this year donald trump warned, pressured and threatened India Efforts to exert pressure against buying Russian oil Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war ukraineNow, almost 10 months later, it appears he has finally forced India to Sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers.
Latest US sanctions Rosneft And Lukoil, which accounts for more than 5 percent of the world’s oil production, has jolted the global oil market – and put Delhi in a difficult position.
Global oil prices rose nearly 9 percent on Thursday from a low of $60 at the start of the week, a sign of widespread disruptions.
It is the first sanctions the Trump administration has imposed directly on Russia, marking the latest effort to stoke Moscow’s war chest and pressure it to end the war.
Trump said he felt now was the time for action, calling it a huge day in Washington’s support for Ukraine and confirming the cancellation of a planned summit with Putin in Budapest over what he described as a lack of progress in talks.
Apart from Russia, the sanctions are also expected to hit China and India, the biggest importers of Russian oil. The Asian economic giant has become heavily dependent on cheap Russian crude since the war in Ukraine Europe To phase out our dependence on Russian energy.
Analysts said flows of Russian crude into India would be hit and the import bills of its refiners would increase in the absence of huge discounts earlier offered by Russian exporters.
Sanjay Kumar Kar, professor at the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology, said the magnitude of these sanctions appears “far-reaching” and could have a real impact in 2022 compared to price caps and other sanctions imposed by G7 members. Independent.
However, he said, the US would struggle to maintain these sanctions because it would affect many superpowers.
Russia had previously succeeded in circumventing the G7price cap, which would have imposed a financial penalty on Moscow but allowed Russian oil to remain on the market. Nevertheless, the measure dealt a financial blow to Moscow: lower revenues for Russian oil companies translated into lower tax receipts for the government. The latest round of sanctions aims to amplify that impact.
“US sanctions have an adverse impact on oil trading countries, most importantly, it creates huge inconvenience for major oil importing countries; of course, it affects the sanctioned country and its companies,” he said.
Professor Carr said, “The recent sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are likely to lead to global crude oil demand-supply imbalances and price fluctuations. Major buyers of Russian crude oil will readjust their crude oil import strategies, possibly recalibrating their crude oil import baskets.”
India has imported about 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude so far this year, while China has bought another 2.2 million barrels.
India now counts Russia, a major defense and trading partner since the Soviet era, as its largest energy supplier in a significant pivot away from the Middle East.
In 2021, before the Ukraine war started, The share of Russian crude oil is about two percent of Indian oil. imports, making it the South Asian country’s 10th largest supplier. In the last 15 years, New Delhi It fulfilled about 60 percent of its needs from the Persian Gulf countries and the rest from Africa and South America.
That all changed in 2022, when Western sanctions prompted Russian oil companies to turn their attention toward relatively untapped and more lucrative markets in Asia, particularly India, where Russian exporters began selling discounted barrels.
The impact of the latest US sanctions is already being felt in India: the country, the biggest customer of Russian crude, is reportedly suspending imports.
Reliance Industries, the biggest Indian buyer of Russian crude, said it was restructuring its imports.
Responding to a question on whether the company planned to cut its crude oil imports from Russia, a Reliance spokesperson said, “Reassessment of Russian oil imports is ongoing and Reliance will be fully in line with the Government of India guidelines.”
Reliance plans to reduce or stop imports of Russian oil and may even stop purchases under its long-term deal with Rosneft, unnamed sources told Reuters.
Reliance Industries, owned by Mukesh Ambani, A millionaire Considered close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it operates the world’s largest refining complex in Jamnagar in the western state of Gujarat. It has a long-term agreement to buy 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Rosneft. The company also sources Russian crude through intermediaries.
State refiners Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation are also reviewing their trade documents to ensure that none of the supplies are directly sourced from Rosneft or Lukoil, people familiar with the matter said.
An unnamed source at a state refinery said there would be a “huge cut” in Russian crude purchases, although he “does not anticipate it will drop to zero immediately, as there will still be some barrels coming to the market”.
Prashant Vashishtha, vice president of ICRA Limited, a subsidiary of Moody’s, said that Rosneft and Lukoil account for 60 percent of the Russian oil purchased by India.
“While India can replace purchases from Russia with suppliers from the Middle East and other regions, the crude oil import bill will increase. On an annual basis, substitution of market priced crude oil will increase the import bill by less than 2 per cent,” Vashishtha said.
Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said secondary sanctions would force refiners to “abandon Russian barrels.”
The US Treasury has given companies until November 21 to stop transactions with Russian oil producers, according to a statement issued on Wednesday.
According to the Finance Ministry, oil and gas revenues account for about a quarter of Russia’s budget. This means any sharp decline in exports or earnings will be a blow to Moscow’s war chest.
Russian energy revenues, which mainly come from oil, fell 20 percent year on year in the first nine months of 2025, according to the Finance Ministry.
Professor Carr said US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could potentially impact their cash flows, but it might not be enough to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
“If these sanctions fail to achieve the stated objectives, it will mark the end of the ‘sanctions era’ and the ‘superpower of imposition'”.
Russia rejected the sanctions as an “unfriendly act”, but insisted they would not significantly affect its economy and instead boost oil prices.
“Of course, this is an attempt to put pressure on Russia,” Putin said, referring to the new US measure. “But no self-respecting country and no self-respecting people ever takes any decision under pressure.”
Asked about Putin’s comment that the latest sanctions would have no significant impact, Trump told reporters later Thursday: “I’m glad he feels that way. That’s good. I’ll tell you about it in six months from now.”