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sir keir starmer A stern warning has been issued at the behest of the government, with pollsters predicting it may struggle to turn things around A devastating defeat in a Labor stronghold.
plaid cymru snatched traditionally Labor seats Of carphilly away from head KirThere was an all night party on Thursday. It was the first time that Labour, which was in third place behind Reform UK, had lost an election in the former mining town in more than a century.
Sir Keir said he was “deeply disappointed” by the outcome, adding: “We clearly need to do much more.”
But this week a lot of people are watching by-election As a Preparation for local elections There will be national elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments next May, Ipsos pollster Kieran Pedley said. Independent Professor Sir John Curtice said it was “hard to see how Labor would turn things around”, while Professor Sir John Curtice said the result showed the party “is in serious trouble in Wales”.
andy burnham-Ally pressure group Mainstream warned that Labor would be “wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset”, advising Sir Keir to “reject hyper-factional culture” [that is] Determined to concentrate power at the top of the party”.
But one Labor MP said there was “nothing Starmer can do to turn the political tide”, urging the Prime Minister to “consider his position now, rather than later, before the Labor Party sinks into the abyss”.
It comes amid growing concern over the direction of Sir Keir’s government, with many seeing next May’s local and national elections as a key test of how Labor is performing in power, and as a deadline for the Prime Minister to start delivering on the government’s priorities.
In this year’s local elections, Reform UK swept more than half a dozen English councils, winning hundreds of seats – a result it is hoping to repeat in 2026.
Labor controls the Welsh Parliament Since the devolved administration was first established in 1999, and carphilly Has been one of its strongholds. But opposition parties are hoping to form the next government welsh government to pass run a fierce campaign In the South Wales constituency, many are viewing this week’s by-election as a Indication of what is going to happen in parliamentary elections Next May.
Lindsay Whittle, long-time councilor for Penrynhole ward and leader of the plaid Cymru group carphilly council, won the seat With 47.38 per cent of the vote – a swing of almost 27 per cent from Labour.
was in second place Improvement At the same time, Britain’s Lear Powell is at 35.9 percent. welsh laborRichard Tunnicliffe came third with only 11 percent.
The result will boost plaid’s efforts to enter government in Wales next year, and is a blow to Labour, which has held the seat since the establishment of the Welsh Parliament.
It will also be seen as a disappointment for Reform UK, which was front-polling and hoping to win its first seat at the ballot box, with Nigel Farage promising to “give everything” into the campaign.
While Reform’s vote share had increased significantly after winning only 495 votes four years ago, tactical voting is believed to have undercut the party’s success in the constituency on Friday. However, the final result placed Reform well ahead of Labour.
This is the first time in history that a by-election has been held for a seat in the Welsh Parliament. More than 50 percent voting took place,
plaid cymru Leader Raun ap Iorwerth said the result showed the people of Caerphilly had chosen “hope rather than division, and progress rather than the tired status quo”.
Mainstream said: “As long as UK Labor governs without a clear vision, detached from its moral purpose and democratic socialist foundations, such losses will continue to occur.”
The group said the only way to resist the shift towards opposition parties such as plaid and Reform is to offer “a popular, principled and practical left-wing politics that can transform the country by raising standards of living, redistributing power and wealth and securing a stake for all in a national community that guarantees the essentials of a good life for all”.
Warning that “time is short”, the group urged Labor to “reject hyper-factional culture”. [that is] “Determined to concentrate power at the top of the party”, adding: “The result is clear – Labor will be wiped out in Wales next May without a major reset.”
Professor Curtice said: “Labour’s share of the vote was just 11 per cent. It fell by 35 points. This is Labor’s biggest ever decline in a by-election in Wales. Labor is in serious trouble in Wales.”
He added: “This shows that plaid is now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister. Improvement It would be disappointing to come second with 36 per cent, but I don’t think we should shy away from the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble has burst.
And Mr. Pedley told Independent: “Yesterday’s collapse in Labour’s support bodes ill ahead of the Senedd next year [Welsh parliament] Election. It is hard to see how he will change things in such an anti-political environment when he is in power at Westminster and in Wales (where he has been for some time).
“The saving grace for Labor is that there appears to be widespread anti-reform strategic voting. This may help Labor somewhat in future elections elsewhere in the UK – even if it may not help them much in Wales next year.”
Mr Whittle received 15,961 votes, almost 19 per cent more than the 2021 result in the constituency, and representing a lead of almost 27 per cent over Labour.
Mr Powell received 12,113 votes, while Labour’s Mr Tunnicliffe trailed on 3,713, down from 13,289 in 2021, when there was a lower turnout.