Will Trump’s new sanctions on Russian oil companies really work to stop Putin?

donald trump hit on russia New round of sanctions targeting major oil companies on Wednesday in an apparent effort to woo the Kremlin for peace talks on Ukraine.

New restrictions unveiled a day later Summit plans between Trump and Vladimir Putin fall apartThe US leader expressed doubt over Russia’s commitment to ending the war.

US Treasury Department said Russia the two largest oil companies, Rosneft And Lukoil was targeted with the aim of causing damage moscowAbility to finance your war machine.

The move was a sharp turnaround for Trump, who in recent days had been emphasizing Putin’s willingness to come to the negotiating table — while acknowledging he may have been “played” with him.

As the sanctions were announced, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said it was time to “stop the killing and an immediate ceasefire”, as oil prices rose more than $2 (£1.50) a barrel.

Trump has resisted pressure from US lawmakers to extend sanctions, but acknowledged he thinks now is the time, given that since he took office there has been little concrete progress toward ending the war.

What is the goal of the sanctions?

The sanctions blacklist Russia’s two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which export about 3.1 million barrels of oil each day.

This accounts for almost half of Russia’s total crude oil exports, according to bloombergTaxes from the oil and gas industries account for about a quarter of Russia’s federal budget.

The Russian economy depends on the export of fossil fuels to foreign buyers. China And India is one of the largest customers of Russian oil and gas.

China, which immediately condemned Trump’s decision, imported about 100 million tons of Russian crude last year, about 20 percent of its total energy imports.

The risk for Russian clients is the threat of secondary penalties for dealing with sanctioned entities. For example, even if China and India are not explicitly targets of sanctions, they may still find themselves without access to Western banking systems, insurance or dollars to engage with companies.

Increased energy prices will impact businesses, which will impact consumer prices.

The US sanctions follow a decision by EU countries to approve a 19th package of measures, which also includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports, announced on Wednesday. Britain also imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last week.

Why did Trump impose sanctions on Russia now?

US lawmakers have been arguing for months that tougher energy sanctions are needed to bend Russia’s hand and bring it to the negotiating table.

Trump had so far resisted the call, hoping he could convince Putin to cut a deal through diplomatic means.

Since the disastrous summit with Zelensky in February, Ukraine has been careful to position itself closer to Washington, highlighting Russia’s lack of commitment.

Trump acknowledged this after Russia doubled down on its maximalist goals in Ukraine.

“Every time I talk to Vladimir, I have a great conversation, and then he doesn’t go anywhere. He doesn’t go anywhere,” Trump said Wednesday.

Besant acknowledged that it was Putin’s refusal to end the “senseless war” that prompted the new sanctions.

Will the sanctions have any effect?

Experts say the sanctions will hit oil profits, but are unlikely to break Russia’s war machine.

Tom Keatinge, Director of RUSI’s Center for Finance and Security Said: “As Ukraine continues to impose its own set of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, the Trump administration has finally woken up.”

He indicated that Ukraine’s allies have so far been “timid” about “reducing sanctions” on oil, Russia’s main source of military revenue.

“Last week Britain took action against key Russian oil assets, yesterday it was America’s turn, and perhaps the EU will finally (almost) do the right thing today. But… when will the EU actually stop financing the Kremlin’s night attacks on Ukraine…?”

Kimberly Donovan, former White House and Treasury official and Atlantic Council expert, Said He expected a “direct and immediate impact on Russia’s oil profits” and said the sanctions were important because of the threat of secondary penalties.

Russia’s economy is in serious trouble, and the Kremlin would be keen to avoid sanctions that could affect economic stability domestically.

Michael Raska, assistant professor in the military transformation program at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, told the BBC that sanctions could force Russia to make a “difficult trade-off” between funding wars abroad and maintaining peace and stability at home.

But he indicated that at present the sanctions are “unlikely to change the military balance” in Ukraine.