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A weak ceasefire went into effect in Gaza this month, israel carried out more air strikes on southern lebanon -Ceasefire continues there for 11 months.
A bombing on a construction equipment business killed a Syrian passerby, injured seven people, including two women, and destroyed millions of dollars worth of bulldozers and excavation equipment.
The October 11 strike would be an anomaly for most countries that are not at war. But near-daily Israeli attacks have become the new normal in Lebanon, nearly a year after a US-brokered cease-fire halted the last conflict between Israel and Israel. Hezbollah,
Some see a possible blueprint for a Gaza ceasefire, with ongoing low-intensity fighting. After this, Israel attacked Gaza on Sunday Hamas Opened fire on its own troops, in the first major test of the US-brokered ceasefire.
Mona Yacoubian, Director middle east The event, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, described the scenario in Lebanon as “low fire” rather than a ceasefire.
“Lebanon could serve as a model for Gaza, essentially giving Israeli forces leeway to attack if they feel threatened without a full resumption of conflict,” he said.
armistice with no apparent enforcement
The latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict began on October 7, 2023, the day after a Hamas-led attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza. The terrorist group Hezbollah, which is based mainly in southern Lebanon, began firing rockets at Israel in support of Hamas and the Palestinians.
Israel responded with airstrikes and shelling. The low-level conflict escalated into a full-scale war in September 2024.
Under the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, Lebanon was required to stop armed groups from attacking Israel and Israel was required to stop “aggressive” military actions in Lebanon. It said, without elaborating, that Israel and Lebanon could act in “self-defense.”
Both sides can report alleged violations to the US, France, Israel, Lebanon’s monitoring committee and a UN peacekeeping force called UNIFIL, but there is ambiguity over implementation of the agreement.
In practice, Israel has largely taken over enforcement, claiming that its strikes in Lebanon target Hezbollah militants, facilities, and weapons.
Israel says its goal is to prevent the badly weakened group from rebuilding. Lebanese officials say the attacks hinder its efforts to disarm Hezbollah by giving the group an excuse to keep its weapons.
Lebanon also says Israeli attacks, including the October 11 attacks, often harm civilians and destroy infrastructure unrelated to Hezbollah.
Lebanon’s health ministry has reported more than 270 people killed and about 850 injured in Israeli military actions since the ceasefire. As of 9 October, the UN human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or non-combatants, spokesman Thamin al-Khaitan said.
No Israelis have been killed by Lebanese fire since the ceasefire.
Spokeswoman Candice Ardeel said that from November 27, 2024, to mid-October, UNIFIL detected approximately 950 projectiles fired from Israel into Lebanon and 100 Israeli airstrikes. During the same period, it reported 21 projectiles fired from Lebanon toward Israel. Hezbollah has claimed one attack since the ceasefire.
conflicting narratives
Following the October 11 attack in Masaileh, Israel’s military said it targeted “engineering equipment aimed at reconstructing terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon”.
Lebanese authorities, Hezbollah and the equipment’s owner protested.
“Everyone in Lebanon, from all different sects, comes to shop with us,” owner Ahmed Tabja told reporters. “What have we done wrong?”
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the attacks a “blatant aggression against civilian facilities”. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri accused Israel of trying to prevent the reconstruction of communities. Lebanon complained to the United Nations Security Council.
A few days later, Israel attacked a cement factory and a mine, claiming that Hezbollah planned to use it to rebuild its infrastructure.
Last month, an Israeli strike hit a motorcycle and a car carrying a family in Bint Jbeil. It killed Shadi Charara, a car salesman, his three children – including 18-month-old twins – and the motorcyclist, and badly injured Charara’s wife and eldest daughter. It was one of the highest deaths since the armistice, causing particular outrage among children.
Sister Amina Charara said, “My brother was a citizen and his children and wife are also citizens, and they have nothing to do with politics.”
Israel’s military said it was targeting a Hezbollah militant, whom it did not name, but acknowledged that civilians had been killed.
Even when the target is a known member of Hezbollah, the military necessity may still be disputed.
Earlier this month, an Israeli drone strike killed a Hezbollah member who was blinded along with his wife in an Israeli blast pager attack last year. The Israeli military said Hassan Atawi was a key officer in Hezbollah’s air defense unit. Hezbollah officials said he has not played any military role since losing his eyesight.
End of ‘mutual deterrence’
Hezbollah was formed in 1982 with Iranian support to fight the Israeli occupation of what was then southern Lebanon. Israeli forces withdrew in 2000 and Hezbollah became one of the most powerful non-state armed groups in the region.
In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a month-long war that ended in a draw. Nicholas Blanford, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East program, said, “The next 17 years were a tense peace… driven largely by mutual resistance.”
Strikes in Lebanon were generally considered out of bounds. Both sides wanted to avoid another damaging war. Now that equation has changed.
Although Blanford said Hezbollah could still strike Israel, he added, “The group’s deterrence has been broken by recent warfare.”
In an interview with The Associated Press last month, Hezbollah political official Mohammed Faneesh said the prospect of co-existing with daily Israeli attacks “is not acceptable.”
But the group has largely limited itself to calling on the Lebanese government to put pressure on Israel in what Phanish called “its political, diplomatic or other capacities.”
He said: “If things escalate, the resistance leadership is studying the matters, and all options are open.”
Yacoubian, the analyst, said he did not expect the situation in Lebanon to change soon, “barring a breakthrough in US-mediated behind-the-scenes negotiations”.
With the Gaza ceasefire in place, he said, there could be an “important role” for fellow mediators Qatar, Egypt and Turkey.
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Associated Press journalist Ahmed Mantash in Masaileh, Lebanon, contributed to this report.