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oneThey are now The infamous meeting in the oval office In February, U.S. President Donald Trump told the Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky He believes this is an important truth: “You’re not in a good situation. You don’t have a card now. With us, you start owning the cards. “
As the two prepare for the next game Meet at his home in FloridaIt appears Mr. Trump has not changed his mind. As he considers a possible peace deal brokered by his own personal envoy and the Ukrainians, the US president remains skeptical: “He had nothing until I approved it.. So we’ll see what he has. I think he’ll be fine. I think that would be great for Putin. “
President Trump What is probably true about Ukraine’s current predicament is due in large part to The United States has withdrawn much of its previous strong support. But he mistakenly believed that President Zelensky was a hopeless supplicant with no advantages of his own. Zelensky could not win the war, but defeat—Ukraine’s destruction—was not inevitable either.
In addition to the bravery and resilience shown by the Ukrainian people, Extensive international support For their cause, Mr. Zelensky also had an extraordinary talent for originality in negotiations.
As things stand, he is clearly more willing to negotiate with Trump’s personal representatives, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushnerthan there is Vladimir Putin. In recent weeks, he has taken seriously Trump’s idea of establishing a demilitarized “economic free zone” in Ukraine’s disputed and partially occupied eastern province of Donbass. Kyiv is also reportedly willing to give up its Apply to join NATO — a key Russian demand — in exchange for the kind of proper NATO-style security guarantees the United States has so far been unwilling to provide.
Before that, he Signing of the “Mineral Agreement” with the Americans and expressed a willingness to give up some control of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (apparently designed to power cryptocurrency mining).
All these diplomatic maneuvers are taking place in a new context Russian missiles and drones attack Kyiva reminder that despite progress in negotiations, Ukrainian civilians are still paying the price of delay.
Now, Zelensky cleverly plays another card – Ukraine holds referendum on future territorial settlement. Of course, this is a gamble. Still, a peace deal that Mr. Zelensky considers acceptable may be rejected by the Ukrainian people. A narrow defeat of Mr Zelensky’s plan would be a particularly difficult and divisive outcome for his country and its future war effort.
Correctly, such an outcome would be interpreted as a repudiation of his leadership and would certainly prompt his resignation. The Russians will use this as an excuse to escalate their terror campaign against the Ukrainian people, and any remaining sympathy in Washington for Ukraine will quickly disappear. Even Ukraine’s most powerful European allies would despair. Organizing such a vote would also be extremely difficult in an active war zone and among the Ukrainian diaspora. Zelensky said a 60-day truce was needed – one that also suited his conduct on the battlefield.
However, the chances of this referendum strategy being successful are good enough to justify Zelensky handing it over to Trump. Any changes to Ukraine’s borders will only be constitutional if confirmed in a referendum. Any efforts to end the war, achieve lasting peace and minimize dissent must have a democratic mandate in Ukraine.
Ukraine has little chance of regaining all the ground it has lost since President Vladimir Putin came to power. Launch of “Special Military Operations” in February 2022not to mention Crimea, lost in 2014. If a new border were drawn along the current front line, this might be considered the best outcome realistically hoped for—and would be devastating for Ukrainians who are thus abandoned by Russian hegemony. But by the same token, Mr Zelensky can argue that neither he nor his people can accept Russia’s demands in a liberal referendum Withdraw troops from Donetsk and Luhansk regions Russian forces are unable to seize the area militarily.
Forging this link between democratic legitimacy and territory is a wise move on Mr Zelensky’s part, as is the groveling attitude he now displays in the face of an increasingly imperialist Mr Trump. their October meeting in Washington It went far better than anyone involved had any right to expect (it helped that there were no objectionable elements) JD Vance), and it is at least possible that Mr. Zelensky will receive a fair hearing from Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Zelensky has always been the epitome of reason, engaging seriously with American overtures, while the Russians have been stubborn and made themselves look like brutally unrepentant nationalist unionists. Trump has said in the past that he is tired of Putin and suspects he may be toying with him. In the coming days, Trump may come to grips with the reality of Russian dishonesty.
Mr Zelensky never held all the cards. But he does have a hand he can play, and a winnable deal. This poker game is far from over.