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although this convenient of cell phone weather The app, with its vibrant icons and distinctive numerical forecasts, is undeniable for everyday conditions, meteorologist The public is urged to prioritize human expertise as they prepare for dangerous, multifaceted winter storms. The suggestion comes as a draconian regime sweeps the United States.
The current multi-state storm, characterized by a dangerous combination of heavy snow, treacherous ice and subzero temperatures, clearly illustrates why nuanced interpretations by human forecasters are crucial. Experts interviewed Associated Press Emphasis on rapidly changing data and subtle geographic differences that determine Snowsleet or freezing rain is beyond the scope of a simple application summary.
“Weather apps are really bad at handling storms with multiple precipitation types, which really makes messaging difficult,” said Marshall Shepherd, a professor of meteorology at the University of Georgia and past president of the American Meteorological Society. “Apps can’t understand the details of why it’s snow, sleet, or freezing rain,” he added.
University of Oklahoma meteorology professor Jason Furtado and other experts emphasized the critical role of human insight, especially local knowledge, in such complex situations.
“For extreme weather events, it’s especially important to know there are human forecasters interpreting the data and making the best localized forecast for your area,” Furtado said. “Unfortunately, many weather forecasting apps use artificial intelligence methods to make forecasts, or ‘interpolate’ from a larger grid to your hometown, allowing for significant errors.”
But some apps can be useful, especially those that pair National Weather Service Forecasters say the data has the expertise of meteorologists. And they are definitely being used by now.
weather channel appThe site has seen a surge in traffic this week, using a large number of models, data sources, weather observers and employees, said James Belanger, a vice president at its parent company. The company also owns The Weather Channel and Weather.com. That proficiency is important, he said.
“This is an all-hands-on-deck approach that we take,” Belanger said, adding that “not all weather apps are created equal.”
What apps can and can’t do
Applications obtain large amounts of information from National Weather Service Some companies have augmented it with proprietary information and well-respected European forecast models. Many companies provide forecasts by zip code or geographical area far away from the weather station by using software that funnels broader regional forecasts to your phone’s location.
Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, said that while there are some good apps, especially those that display National Weather Service warnings and information, many “oversimplify the uncertainties and provide numbers that appear to be highly precise, implying more confidence than is actually there.” This type of storm is where apps are weakest because they can’t understand nuance, he said.
Steven DiMartino of New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania Weather said weather apps can do a good job of predicting warm summer days, but not the kind that much of the country is facing now. The paid online subscription service touts its human expertise under the slogan “Meteorology, not Modeling.”
“The problem with weather apps is that they provide data but not interpretation,” DiMartino said. “Anyone can look at the data, but you need a meteorologist, and you need a human way to look at the data and say, ‘Well, this looks like a mistake; we’re going to adjust for this.'”
Find quality data sources
Cory Mottice, a National Weather Service meteorologist since 2014, developed the EverythingWeather app, which uses weather service data to allow the public to easily find the latest weather forecasts for their area without having to browse the agency’s website. He said it was “just for fun” and had nothing to do with the weather service.
He said the advantage of his app is that the information comes from professional meteorologists at more than 125 weather service offices. Many applications simply use raw computer modeling data – which is not always reliable in extreme events – without human oversight, “which can really lead to some very misleading numbers or graphics, depending on what field you’re in,” he said.
Mortis said that with his approach, “you have real meteorologists in different places across the country for specific areas, who are experts in their field, looking at the data, tweaking the data, making forecasts as needed.”
Combining decades of experience, 100 meteorologists and artificial intelligence
The popular Weather Channel app uses information from multiple sources, including weather services and more than 100 weather models, including those from the United States and Europe as well as their own unique models. The Weather Company’s Belanger said they augmented it with input from more than 100,000 citizens to help predict weather events. He said it was all predicted by artificial intelligence.
This is more accurate than relying on a single model or provider, he said, because the AI is able to learn which models are most accurate under different conditions to help “create the best forecasts.”
Even so, Bellanger said, humans, including a team of more than 100 meteorologists, always have the final say over content on the app.
“One of the lessons and principles we’ve learned is that technological advancements are combined with human oversight,” which allows the company to provide the best forecasts — especially in the current climate winter stormBelanger said.
Be careful with social media
Forecasters also warn against another quick fix for weather information: social media, where hype, misinformation and clips can spread quickly.
While social media can help amplify official sources like the weather service, “it’s also where misinformation spreads most quickly,” Gensini wrote in an email.
“Weather is complex, and social media tends to reward confidence and drama over nuance,” Gensini said. “That mismatch is a real challenge in a major event like this.”
Kim Klockow McClain, an extreme weather social scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, said people were “misled by the much-hyped forecasts.”
“When people continually accept worst-case scenario predictions, research shows that over time, they lose trust,” she said.