Kyiv:
US President Donald Trump has halted military shipments to Ukraine, days after a heated, televised exchange with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. The decision could leave thousands of civilians in Ukraine defenceless against Russia’s missile attacks. It has also led to concerns in Kyiv about how to fill the gap left by a global force like the US in the eastern European country’s fight against Moscow.
While some military equipment can be sourced from other countries or produced domestically, Ukraine’s biggest concern is the depletion of the Patriot air defence system, a major asset provided by the US.
Unlike other supplies, these advanced missile defence systems cannot be easily replaced, for Washington controls their licensing and production. Ukraine’s military has used the Patriots effectively, even intercepting Russian Kinzhal missiles, which Moscow once claimed were impossible to stop.
Ukrainian soldiers say the absence of Patriot missiles is a direct threat to civilians and not just frontline troops. “The US holds the licensing to the Patriot missile systems, and also the missile production for them, which makes it very challenging for multiple European countries to recreate these,” Kateryna Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told CNN.
The Patriot system is Ukraine’s main defence against Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles, which follow a curved trajectory before striking their targets. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said, “This is the only system capable of dealing with Russian ballistic missiles.”
As Russia ramps up its missile stockpiles through domestic production and imports from allies like Iran and North Korea, Ukraine struggles to keep pace. An official in Kyiv told CNN that the country’s stock of Patriot missiles could be exhausted within weeks if no new supplies arrive.
Frontline troops echo these concerns. “Our weakness is in air-defence missiles, the Patriots,” said Yegor Firsov, the chief sergeant of a drone strike platoon.
Initially reluctant to supply Ukraine with Patriots, the US eventually sent several systems after months of intense Russian aerial bombardments. While Ukraine has received a handful from Germany, the Netherlands and Romania, these are far from the 25 systems Zelensky previously stated were necessary to secure Ukrainian airspace.
Countries such as Greece, Poland and South Korea, which also have Patriot batteries, have hesitated to send them due to their own security concerns.
While alternatives such as NASAMS and IRIS-T exist, they are reportedly better suited for countering drones and cruise missiles instead of advanced hypersonic or ballistic threats. The SAMP/T system, developed by the European manufacturer Eurosam, could serve as a replacement, but supply chain limitations make this option uncertain.
Beyond missile defences, Ukraine is also at risk of losing other vital military aid from the US, including artillery shells, armoured vehicles and long-range missile systems.
Mark Galeotti, a Russia analyst, told CNN, “The Patriots are the headline item, but beyond that, it’s what we call the ‘invisible supplies’.”
If Ukraine runs out of stocks or spare parts, even minor breakdowns in their tanks and armoured vehicles will render them unusable.
With European military aid currently on par with US contributions, Ukraine is seeking ways to ramp up domestic arms production. But Zelensky has said that local manufacturing covers only about 30 per cent of the country’s needs, making external support indispensable.