Mr Modi’s visit to the Trump White House on February 12-13 comes as Mr Trump is in the fourth week of his second presidency. Since his inauguration, Mr Trump has met only Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and Jordan’s King Abdullah. Mr Trump’s focus is on his domestic agenda, a controversial plan for Gaza and imposed trade tariffs on several countries and categories of goods. The latter is an area of concern for India.
Personal rapport
The personal rapport between Mr Modi and Mr Trump, built over back-to-back visits to each other’s countries, will likely play a significant role in their meeting. The two leaders have shared perceptions of China and radical Islam as existential threats, and both have been known for their strongman leadership styles and economic nationalism. It started with Mr Modi’s September 2019 visit to Howdy Modi event in Houston, and subsequently Mr Trump’s visit to Ahmedabad in February 2020.
Immigration and deportation
One key issue that may be discussed during Mr Modi’s visit is the humane treatment of Indian deportees. The US has sent back a first batch of 104 Indian illegal immigrants, and another 800 individuals are expected to be deported soon. India has registered concerns over the mistreatment of its citizens and is seeking assurances from the US. Currently there are 7.25 lakh immigrants in the US, of which about 20,000 are identified for deportation. Moreover, this meet would also hope to ensure the legal channels for Indians to move to the US for study, work or tourism remains clear.
Trade and tariffs
Trade tariffs are another major irritant in the relationship. Mr Trump has imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and has described India as a “tariff king” and “abuser” of tariffs. Mr Trump had announced a 25% tariff on aluminium and steel imports with “no exemptions, no exceptions” for any country. Indian companies are concerned about the impact of these tariffs on domestic steel prices and the risk of losing out in the US steel market. India has already slashed tariffs on high-end motorcycles and electric batteries ahead of Mr Modi’s visit, and a more pragmatic approach from Delhi would be to negotiate a trade deal where both sides benefit from lowering tariffs and market access.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss expanded spending on defense equipment and potentially announce new deals. Indian officials have said that domestic companies are in talks to increase purchases of American energy supplies, particularly liquefied natural gas. Mr Modi can point to recent reductions in Indian tariffs on high-end American motorcycles and the prospect of lower duties on goods like bourbon and pecans, which are produced mainly in Republican states.
Relationship with China
India occupies a unique position in its relationship with the US, neither viewed as a significant threat nor considered a traditional ally. Unlike China, which is perceived as a strategic rival, or countries like the UK and Japan, which are long standing allies, India maintains a distinct status.
This stance is reflected in the US’s relatively neutral stance towards India, avoiding criticism often levied against allies deemed not to be “pulling their weight.” Moreover, some members of the Trump administration, known for their tough stance on China, have demonstrated a more conciliatory approach towards India. For instance, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously led the India Caucus in the House of Representatives, while Senator Rubio expressed support for enhanced US-India defense cooperation.
Overall, Mr Modi’s visit to the US is a significant opportunity for the two nations to strengthen their ties and address key issues in their bilateral relationship. With the visit taking place early in Mr Trump’s presidency, it is primarily about reaffirming relations with the US, rather than addressing long-term fissures in the relationship.