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more serious type Fever Set to wreak havoc on the NHS this winter infections moving at a rate Usually not seen until early December.
Given that virus With the vaccine having already begun circulating five weeks ago, experts fear more vulnerable people such as elderly pensioners may not have received their vaccine.
The latest data showed that the rate of hospitalization for flu in England was 3.8 per 100,000 people last week, up from 2.4 the previous week, according to figures published by the UK Health Protection Agency (UKHSA).
While this is well below the peaks reached in recent years, it is a level of penetration that is not typically reached until next month and is evidence that the current flu season has started “unusually early”, the UKHSA said.
Speaking at the NHS Providers Conference in Manchester, Dr Antonia Ho, clinical senior lecturer and consultant in infectious diseases at the University of Glasgow, said: “Of the two seasonal influenza A viruses, the current dominant circulating virus (A/H3N2) causes more severe disease than A/H1N1, particularly in older adults.
For example, there were 16,000 influenza-related deaths in the 2022/23 winter season, when A(H3N2) was the dominant virus, compared with 8,000 the previous winter.
“This comes five weeks earlier than the ‘normal’ flu season, meaning a smaller proportion of the vulnerable population will have received the flu vaccine.
“From past experience, influenza waves that start early tend to affect larger numbers of people in the population.”
Dr Ho said the currently circulating virus A(H3N2) acquired seven new mutations over the summer, meaning it is significantly different from the previous strain included in this year’s vaccine.
It also means that the virus can change enough to evade immunity built up from previous infections and vaccinations.
“It is believed that the R (reproduction) number has increased from 1.2 to 1.4, which means it is more contagious. That means 100 people infected with this strain of flu can infect 140 people (instead of 110 to 120 people in other flu seasons),” she said.
The UKHSA estimates that flu deaths in England last winter were 7,757, compared with 3,555 the year before.
Child deaths due to flu also increased from 34 to 53.
Britain is bracing for flu deaths this winterNHS leaders have issued a “flu jab SOS” urging people to get protected.
It follows Australia’s biggest flu season in history, which is often seen as an accurate predictor of what the UK can expect.