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Britain’s inflation fell to an eight-month low in November as Black Friday sales and falling food prices helped ease the cost of living.
The consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 3.2% in November from 3.6% in October. National Statistical Office (ONS) said.
Here, press association It looks at what’s behind the decline and what it means for households and the economy.
– What is inflation?
inflation This term is used to describe the rising price of goods and services.
Inflation rate refers to how fast prices are rising.
November’s inflation rate of 3.2% means that if an item cost £100 a year ago, it will now cost £103.20.
This is down from the 3.6% rate recorded in October, meaning prices are rising at a slower rate than before.
– Why did inflation reduce?
The ONS said the biggest factor driving down inflation last month was low food prices.
Items such as bread, cereals and cakes, butter, cheese and pasta became cheaper between October and November, while alcoholic beverages including beer and wine also became cheaper.
However, food prices are still higher than last year, with the annual inflation rate coming in at 4.2% in November – though down from October’s 4.9% rate.
Prices for some food and beverage items have increased over the past year, with annual increases including a 27.7% increase in beef, a 17.3% increase in chocolate, and a 14.5% increase in coffee.
Sarah Coles, Head of Personal Finance Hargreaves Lansdownesaid this meant that people’s “experience in supermarkets will still largely depend on what you buy”.
– Did Black Friday make any difference?
The ONS said its data showed there would be bigger Black Friday sales this year than in 2024, which helped push down the prices of clothes and shoes.
Black Friday has become an important time for retailers to attract shoppers with discounts that last well beyond the typical November shopping date.
The ONS said women’s clothing had suffered the biggest declines, with items such as trousers and skirts.
Ms Coles said sluggish sales during the year had “convinced retailers that they had to work harder to get people through their doors – so the discounts were heavy”.
– Will inflation continue to fall?
While November’s inflation rate fell sharply, some economists warned it was likely a one-off, with factors such as Black Friday sales potentially skewing the data.
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said prices of goods including clothing, furniture and sports, toys and hobbies fell more than expected, warning that this would “likely reverse” in the coming months.
James Smith, economist EngHe said he expected inflation to pick up in December, particularly due to seasonal increases in airfares.
However, he said, “the latest decline in inflation fits into a broader set of evidence that suggests price pressures are easing”, adding: “We expect headline inflation to fall closer to 2% by May.”
– What does this mean for interest rates?
Most economists think the latest set of inflation data will be enough to convince policymakers to cut interest rates when they next meet on Thursday.
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates to 3.75% from 4%.
Charlotte Kennedy, chartered financial planner at Rathbones, said the inflation readings “pave the way for a potential rate cut before Christmas, particularly given the need to stimulate the economy and address the ongoing malaise in employment and job opportunities”.
“The measures announced in the Budget – such as reduction in rail fares by 2027, cut in fuel duty and reduction in energy bill costs – are expected to reduce headline inflation by about 0.5 percentage points by the middle of next year,” he said.
He said this increases the likelihood of the Bank of England reaching its 2% target rate for CPI inflation “in the not too distant future”.