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mMore than 900 people have died, thousands are missing and millions have been affected due to the ore. hurricane and extreme monsoon Season Throughout Southern Asia. Torrential rains have caused the worst flooding in decades, along with landslides. Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia have been most affected. number of dead There is likely to be a significant increase.
Generally cyclones do not form near the equator. But Cyclone Senyar formed just north of the equator in the Strait of Malacca. This caused deadly flooding in Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia last week.
It was not alone. Other tropical cyclones formed along the area of altered trade winds north of the equator. Typhoon Koto caused severe flooding and landslides in the Philippines before weakening as it approached Vietnam. Tropical Cyclone Ditvaha devastated Sri Lanka. One reason for such severe flooding in Sumatra was the unusual interaction between Typhoon Koto and Cyclone Senyar, which has now weakened.
The near-simultaneous emergence of these intense storms is not unheard of, and equatorial cyclones are rare but known. But the devastation is extraordinary. Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake described the flood as “the most challenging natural disaster” in the country’s history. Is there a climate connection? We don’t know yet, but we do know that climate change is expected to cause fewer cyclones overall, but with higher intensity.
Why are cyclones rare near the equator?
Cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes are different names for the same powerful, rotating tropical storm. These storms form over large expanses of warm water – but usually not over equatorial seas.
This is because the Earth’s rotation at the equator does not cause enough Coriolis force to cause storms to turn into their classic cyclonic structure.
The closest cyclone to the equator was Tropical Storm Vamei of 2001 which formed at only 1.4°N. Cyclone Senyar formed at 3.8°N.
While tropical cyclones can form in any month, they are more common in the northwestern Pacific and North Indian Oceans between July and October. Cyclone Senyar and Typhoon Koto formed in the northwest Pacific basin, where the largest, most frequent, and most intense tropical cyclones in the world occur. Several destructive typhoons have hit the Philippines and parts of southern China this year.
About the author
steve turton is one Assistant Professor of Environmental Geography at CQUniversity, Queensland, Australia. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. read the original article
One reason why these cyclones cause widespread damage is that they affect countries where cyclones are rare, such as Indonesia and Malaysia.
Tropical cyclones are often small and are much less common in the North Indian Ocean, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. But Cyclone Ditwar directly hit the east coast of Sri Lanka, increasing the damage.
Is there a climate connection?
As the world’s oceans and atmosphere rapidly warm due to increased greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, tropical cyclones are expected to become more intense.
This is because cyclones get their energy from warm oceans. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel there is for hurricanes.
The warming climate is supercharging the global water cycle, and maximum precipitation rates are increasing. When there is excessive rainfall in a short period of time, the possibility of flash floods increases.
We can’t immediately say that climate change has made these storms worse, because it takes time to detect any relationship.
What does this mean for Australia’s cyclone season?
Many Australians will wonder whether these devastating cyclones across Asia are a warning for northern Australia’s monsoon season.
The rainy season has started with a bang in Northern Australia, after severe tropical cyclone Fina caused damage and disruption in the Top End and Kimberley last week. It was very early for cyclones to occur in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, as the season runs from November to May.
Last week saw the most devastating spring storm in more than a decade across southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. Huge hail and damaging winds caused major damage, causing losses to one insurer estimated at A$350 million.
This does not mean that bad cyclonic weather is guaranteed. It is not possible to predict individual tropical cyclone events very far in advance.
All indicators point to a mixed wet season across the north this year, with below average rainfall across much of the north-west and above average rainfall across much of the north-east.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has just declared La Nina in the Pacific region. La Niña typically brings cool, wet weather to northern Australia and a high risk of strong monsoons and cyclones. This La Niña is likely to be relatively weak and short-lived, which is why rainfall predictions are largely average.
Over much of the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures are 2°C above normal. This unusual warmth increases the risk of cyclone formation as well as more intense monsoon rains and floods in the coming months.
In the south, the risk of heatwaves and bushfires has increased, with extremely hot weather forecast for much of Australia.
The Bureau of Meteorology has recently abolished seasonal cyclone forecasts as it is no longer possible to do so reliably. Until now, meteorologists have used historical data to build reasonably accurate models of the total number of cyclones in a season. But the climate is now changing so rapidly that it is no longer possible to do so. As rescue efforts continue in many countries in the region, it is clear that we are now entering uncharted territory.