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“A new and beautiful day is rising and the rebuilding begins now,” Donald Trump told world leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday. The success of the first phase of their peace agreement To end the war between Israel and Hamas.
If the “first phase” sought to address the key demands of both sides – namely a ceasefire in Gaza and Return of hostages to Israel – The second will focus on rebuilding the enclave in a way that guarantees lasting peace and security.
Trump admitted this on Monday the path to peace will be winding“All the phases of the deal are a little bit mixed up with each other”, he said, later assuring that elements could still be moved “out of sequence in a positive way”.
The US President’s formula for peace is outlined a 20 point plan Unveiled in late September. The proposal includes some short deadlines for immediate pressures, as well as several more abstract commitments for the future.
Israel said it accepted the terms during its presentation on 29 September. But negotiations continue on “phase two” with Hamas, Trump said on Monday.
challenges to peace
Trump’s visit to Israel coincided with the effective conclusion of the first phase of the agreement. Israeli forces withdrew to an agreed line late last week and ceased their firing, allowing Hamas will prepare live hostages Will be returned to Israel on Monday. Israel in return released approximately 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
There has already been some movement on the terms. Initially, Hamas was to release all 48 hostages, living and dead, within 72 hours.
Israeli families were furious on Monday after learning that not all the remains of dead hostages would be returned by the deadline. Israeli sources told CNN ahead of time that Israel had assessed that Hamas might not be able to recover all the bodies by the deadline, but Defense Minister Israel Katz said a deliberate delay would be a violation of the agreement.
The ceasefire is fragile, and negotiators are adapting it in real time. Perhaps intentionally, the 20-point framework does not define many difficult situations, leaving some room for discussion. Before going to Egypt, Trump told reporters that the phase “Everyone was a little mixed with each other”. Later, he said, “We’re actually in phases three and four”.
“It’s not going to be, you know, divided that simply,” he said. “We can go a long way on some of the things we say we’re going to do. We can disorganize them in a positive way.”
Disarming Hamas and rebuilding Gaza
The ceasefire, which comes into force on 10 October, should pave the way for the “unrestricted” flow of aid into Gaza through the United Nations and its agencies and the Red Crescent. Access to food, water, shelter, energy and medicine will be the most urgent priorities for the people of Gaza in the coming days.
The ultimate task will be to rebuild Gaza, create more permanent establishments, and guarantee security for both the local population and the people of Israel. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) official Jaco Cilliers told reporters on Tuesday that there are “very good signs” that countries including the United States as well as Arab and European states are willing to contribute to the $70 billion cost of Gaza reconstruction. He estimated that the two-year war had generated at least 55 million tons of debris.
Trump’s plan originally called for Hamas to give up its weapons and disarm, making way for a transitional government until a more permanent government was in place. When Hamas agreed to return the hostages in exchange for hostages on October 3, it also agreed to hand over power to Palestinian technocrats. There was no mention of the condition of disarmament. A Hamas source told AFP news agency that the question of disarmament does not arise.
According to the agreement, the full withdrawal of Israeli forces is contingent on the disarmament of Hamas, and Israeli withdrawal from those parts of the Strip (about 53 percent) that would be necessary for a comprehensive reconstruction campaign.
Concerns that this could derail Gaza reconstruction were somewhat calmed when Trump said Hamas had been given approval to act as the Palestinian police force in Gaza “for some time.” Asked on Monday about reports of Hamas regrouping, the US President said,They stand up because they want to stop the problemsAnd they’ve been open about it, and we’ve had them approved for some time.
international stabilization force
Disarmament cannot happen immediately. Hamas, the de facto governing authority in Gaza, is responsible for employing approximately 30,000 civil servants. Trump’s peace plan calls for the US to work with “Arab and international partners” to create a so-called International Stabilization Force (ISF) to train and support vetted police forces in Gaza. But vetting and redeploying those jobs will take time.
The ISF will help maintain the ceasefire and begin work to return order to the streets of Gaza. It must allow Hamas to retreat without creating a power vacuum that could allow terrorist groups to emerge.
Details – again – are vague. Diplomats told financial Times On Monday that the size, extent and origins of the ISF were still unknown to him. The second phase – disarmament and final withdrawal from the strip – will determine the success or failure of the agreement, some indicated.
Even in theory, the involvement of foreign forces policing Gaza remains complicated. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) assessed, “Unless there is clear buy-in from Palestinian elements on the ground (to include Hamas, which opposes the idea), it is difficult to imagine that any Arab forces would be willing to deploy on the ground.”
What comes after Hamas?
The original plan describes a transitional government – ”technical and apolitical” – managing the overall operation of Gaza, overseen by an international body called the “Peace Board”.
The proposal suggested that the interim government could be replaced by the Palestinian Authority (PA), subject to certain “reforms”. PA President Mahmoud Abbas attended the summit in Egypt on Monday, and a senior Palestinian official on Sunday told Sir Tony Blair for a role on the peace board that the group was ready to work with him and Trump to consolidate the ceasefire and begin reconstruction.
There are some problems in setting up the PA. The West Bank-based governing body, run by Hamas rival Fatah, is unpopular among Palestinians and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already rejected their rule in Gaza.
Former British ambassador and international security expert Edmund Fitton-Brown suggested that Gaza could end with the “gradual, and potentially highly problematic” constitution of “a kind of Jordanian-Egyptian trained Palestinian police force” under the supervision of a peace board and Tony Blair, reinforced by this ISF, which “could consist of a small number of peacekeeping forces”.
price of peace
There are varying figures on the cost of Gaza reconstruction. The United Nations today suggested it could cost $70 billion (£52 billion) to rebuild. In February, a UN official put the cost at $53.2 billion over the next 10 years.
UNDP official Jaco Cilliers said it could take a decade or even several decades to fully rebuild the Palestinian territory after nearly two years of continuous conflict.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in August that Israel had suffered losses of 300 billion shekels (£67.87 billion) in the war.
Palestinian health officials say the campaign against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip has killed more than 67,000 people, nearly a third of them under the age of 18.
Israel bombed Gaza after Hamas made incursions into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages in the bloodiest day in Israel’s history.