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Iraqis We are preparing to vote in the parliamentary election which comes at a critical moment for the country and the region.
Voting will begin on Sunday with voting for members of the security forces and displaced people living in camps, and a general election is scheduled for Tuesday.
The outcome of the vote will affect whether Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will be able to serve a second term.
The election comes amid fears of another war between Israel and Iran and possible Israeli or American attacks on Iran-backed groups in Iraq. Baghdad Tehran seeks to maintain a delicate balance in its relations with Washington amid increasing pressure from the Trump administration over the presence of Iran-linked armed groups.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the upcoming vote.
Iraq’s electoral system
This year’s election will be the seventh since the 2003 US-led invasion that ousted the country’s longtime strongman. Saddam Hussein,
In the security vacuum that followed the fall of Saddam, the country plunged into a bloody civil war for several years, which saw the rise of extremist groups, including the Islamic State group. But violence has decreased in recent years. Rather than security, the main concerns of many Iraqis now are a lack of job opportunities and a decline in public services – including regular power cuts despite the country’s energy wealth.
Under the law, women must hold 25% of the country’s 329 parliamentary seats, and nine seats are allocated for religious minorities. By tradition in Iraq’s post-2003 power-sharing system the post of Speaker of Parliament is also assigned to a Sunni, while the Prime Minister is always Shia And the President is a Kurd.
There has been a steady decline in voting percentage in recent elections. In the last parliamentary election in 2021, turnout was 41%, a record low in the post-Saddam era, down from 44% in the 2018 election, the lowest at that time.
However, only 21.4 million of the total 32 million eligible voters have updated their information and received voter cards, which is lower than the last parliamentary election in 2021, when about 24 million voters registered.
Unlike previous elections, there will be no polling stations outside the country.
key players
7,744 candidates are competing, most of whom are largely from sect-aligned parties, apart from a few independent candidates.
These include former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, cleric Ammar al-Hakim and several Shia factions linked to armed groups; competing Sunni factions led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani; and the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
Many powerful, Iran-linked Shia militias are running in the elections through affiliated political parties. These include the Harakat Huqoq (Rights Movement) bloc along with the Kata’ib Hezbollah militia and the Sadiqoun bloc led by Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia.
However, one of the most prominent players in the country’s politics is sitting out the elections.
Popular Sadrist movement led by influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-SadrIs boycotting. Al-Sadr’s faction won the largest number of seats in the 2021 election, but later withdrew after failed talks on forming a government amid a standoff with rival Shia parties. Since then he has boycotted the political system.
The Sadrist stronghold of Sadr City on the outskirts of Baghdad is home to about 40% of Baghdad’s population and has long played a decisive role in shaping the balance of power between Shia factions.
But before this election, the usually lively streets were almost completely devoid of campaign posters or banners. Instead, some signs calling for an election boycott could be seen.
Meanwhile, some reformist groups that emerged from the massive anti-government protests that began in October 2019 are participating, but are bogged down by internal divisions and a lack of funding and political support.
concerns about the process
There have been widespread allegations of corruption and vote-buying ahead of the election, and 848 candidates were disqualified by election authorities, sometimes for unclear reasons such as allegedly disrespecting religious rituals or members of the armed forces.
Previous elections in Iraq were often marred by political violence, including assassinations of candidates, attacks on polling stations, and clashes between supporters of different blocs.
While the overall level of violence has decreased, a candidate was also assassinated ahead of this year’s election.
On 15 October, Baghdad Provincial Council member Safa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate in the al-Tarmiya district, north of the capital, was assassinated by a car bomb. Five suspects have been arrested in connection with the murder, which is being prosecuted as a terrorist act.
Al-Sudani wants another term
Al-Sudani came to power in 2022 with the support of a group of pro-Iranian parties, but has since tried to balance Iraq’s relations with Tehran and Washington. He has established himself as a pragmatist focused on improving public services.
Although Iraq has seen relative stability during al-Sudani’s first term, there is no easy path for him to a second term. Only one Iraqi prime minister since 2003, Maliki, has served more than one term.
The election results will not necessarily indicate whether al-Sudani will remain or not. In the last several elections in Iraq, the group that won the most seats has not been able to field its preferred candidate.
On the one hand, al-Sudani faces disagreements with some leaders in the Shia Coordination Framework bloc that brought him to power over control of state institutions. On the other hand, it is facing increasing pressure from America to control the country’s forces.
The subject of particular controversy has been the fate of the Popular Mobilization Forces, a coalition of militias formed to fight the Islamic State group. It was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi Army in 2016 but in practice it still operates with significant autonomy. PMF members will vote on Saturday along with Iraqi army soldiers and other security forces.