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What does patrolling the LAC again mean… Will the border deal ease tensions between India and China?

Arun Jain, 21/10/202421/10/2024

Relations between India and China have long been tense, but in a major development, the two countries have reached some agreement on border issues. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China have reached an agreement on the disputed patrol point, after which troops will be able to start patrolling here. Tensions have arisen after armies of the two countries clashed in bloody clashes in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh.

Vikram Misri said the agreement was important as it would help in taking steps towards disengagement. For example, the situation at sensitive patrol points such as Depsang and Demchok will be improved after the agreement is signed. He told Indian and Chinese diplomatic and military officials that talks had been ongoing over the past few weeks. Talks were held on a number of fronts in an effort to resolve the long-standing dispute.

After the Galwan Valley incident, patrols were stopped at some patrol points, but this resolution will help ease tensions. For example, China has established military bases in some areas, which further aggravates tensions, and this issue can find a solution through this resolution. Especially in the Depsang and Demchok areas there are disputes and there are problems with negotiations.

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What do military sources say about these agreements?

Sources in the Ministry of Defense said that officials from the Ministry of External Affairs and the Indian Army participated in the meeting. The purpose of this meeting is to complete the process of secession negotiations that have been set. Although points like Depsang and Demchok are of strategic significance and it is necessary to break away from these points, the biggest controversy is still at these points. Restoration of patrols at these locations is ongoing, with more than five patrol locations due to recommence.

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However, many aspects of the agreement have been kept confidential and the parties are working to implement what is agreed upon in the agreement. The latest development comes after several rounds of military-level talks where disengagement and de-escalation in several other hotspots along the LAC such as Pangong Tso, Gogra and Hot Springs were discussed. The disengagement process is underway and is believed to ease tensions and reduce the likelihood of future border clashes.

Possible escape mechanism

If sources are to be believed, it is unclear whether the patrols at Depsang and Demchok points will be based on the standard operating procedures followed before 2020 or whether both parties have worked out a new protocol for this purpose.

The BRICS summit will be held in Russia, and Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping can hold bilateral talks. Only after this meeting will we know what kind of breakaway it will be. One source said this was a first step toward normalizing the situation, but also said a complete troop withdrawal and de-escalation of tensions could depend on talks between the two leaders.

Regarding Depsang Point, sources said the real issue has been resolved. After this, the Chinese army is expected to withdraw from here. It is also expected that after this agreement, the Chinese army will not block the Indian patrols and they will return to the situation before 2020.

It was also discussed during the meeting that even before 2020, the Chinese army had prevented the Indian army from entering the “Y-shaped hub” that was close to the bottleneck. It is expected that patrols at previous patrol points will resume following the recent consent.

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Disengagement timetable so far

1. After the bloody conflict in the Galwan Valley in 2020, the two sides held multiple rounds of talks on the disengagement issue in an attempt to ease tensions at the Line of Actual Control. Since June 2020, the detachment process has also been completed at several points:

2. Galwan Valley (June 2020): Following violent clashes in the Galwan Valley, India and China agreed to a phased disengagement and establishment of a buffer zone. This was the first success in the direction of disengagement, so the focus was once again on easing tensions in the region.

3. Gogra Post (August 2021): Indian and Chinese troops withdrew from Patrol Point 17A (Gogra Post) in August 2021. Troops from both sides withdrew and established a buffer zone to maintain peace and avoid further confrontation.

4. Hot Springs (September 2022): Troops withdrew from Patrol Point 15 in the Hot Springs area. After the 16th round of military commander-level talks, troops were withdrawn and a buffer zone was established.

5. Depsang Plains and Demchok (dispute continues): Many places have been disengaged but the Depsang Plains and Demchok issues remain unresolved. However, with the signing of the new agreement, the two sides are expected to begin disengagement on these important issues, which is an important decision.

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