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Human-caused climate change causes increased ocean temperatures, leading to intense rainfall, leading to deadly floods and landslides Asia in recent weeks, according to an analysis released Wednesday.
The quick study conducted by World Weather Attribution focused on heavy rainfall from cyclones Senyar and Ditvah malaysia, ThailandIndonesia and Sri Lanka Starting from the end of last month. The analysis found that warmer sea surface temperatures over the northern Indian Ocean increased the energy of the cyclones.
More than 1,600 people have died in floods and landslides caused by the storm, while hundreds are still missing. The cyclones are the latest in a series of deadly weather disasters to hit Southeast Asia this year, resulting in loss of life and property.
“It rains a lot here but never like this. Usually the rains stop around September but this year it is really bad. Every region of Sri Lanka has been affected and our region has been the worst affected,” said Shanmugavadivu Arunachalam, a 59-year-old school teacher from Hatton, a mountainous town in Sri Lanka’s Central Province.
sea surface temperature rise
According to WWA researchers, sea surface temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean were 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above average over the past three decades.
According to the analysis, without global warming, sea surface temperatures would have been about 1 °C (1.8 °F) cooler than before. The warm ocean temperatures provided heat and moisture to the storms.
When measuring overall temperatures, the world is currently 1.3 °C (2.6 °F) warmer than the global average since pre-industrial times in the 19th century, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“When the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture. As a result, it rains more in a warmer atmosphere than in a world without climate change,” said Maryam Zakaria of the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London and one of the report’s authors.
Using proven methods to quickly measure climate impacts
WWA is a collection of researchers who use peer-reviewed methods to rapidly conduct studies to investigate how extreme weather events are linked to climate change.
“Whenever we decide to do a study, we know what process we have to follow,” Zakaria said, adding that they review the findings in-house and even send some of their analyzes out for peer review after initial versions are made public.
According to Zakaria, the speed with which WWA releases its analyzes helps inform the general public about the impacts of climate change.
“We want people everywhere to know why something happened in their neighborhood,” Zakaria said. “But also be aware of the reasons behind certain events that happen around the world.”
WWA often uses specific probabilities to estimate how much worse climate change would make a disaster. However, in this case, researchers said they could not estimate the exact contribution of climate change to the storms and ensuing heavy rains due to limitations of climate models for the affected islands.
Climate change triggers unusually heavy rainfall in Asia
Jamila Mahmood of the Sunway Center for Planetary Health, a Malaysia-based think tank that was not involved in the WWA analysis, said global warming is a “powerful amplifier” for the deadly floods, storms and landslides that have hit Asia this year.
“The region and the world are on this path because economic growth has been prioritized over climate sustainability for decades,” Mahmoud said. “This has led to an accumulated planetary debt, and has resulted in the crisis we are facing.”
The analysis found that in the affected countries, the risk of flood events is increased due to rapid urbanization, high population density and infrastructure in low-lying flood plains.
“The death toll from cyclones Ditvah and Senyar is shocking,” said Maja Wahlberg, technical advisor at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “Unfortunately, it is the most vulnerable people who experience the worst effects and have the longest road to recovery.”
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Follow Sibi Arasu on Instagram @sibi123.
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Delgado reported from Bangkok, Thailand.
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