Next May is Parliament (Welsh Parliament) Election will not be another journey for elections just. How this will be a big change in Welsh democracy Works The number of elected members is increasing from 60, and the voting system is being overhale. These changes have now been passed in the law.
But what exactly is changing – and why?
When the assembly was first established in 1999, it had limited powers and only 60 members. Since then a lot has changed and now it has increased responsibility, including the powers of making primary laws on matters like health, education, environment, transport and economic development.
Wales The Act 2014 now also gave several new financial powers on Sendd, including the powers of taxation and borrowing. But its size has been the same.
This caused concern about capacity and effectiveness. In 2017, an independent expert panel concluded on electoral reforms that Sendd was no longer fit for the purpose. It warned that 60 members were not enough to investigate the Welsh government only, pass laws and respond to components. A large chamber, it argued, will improve the quality of laws and democratic accountability.
Wales is also a less elected politician per capita compared to any other in Wales UK Nation. Scotland have 129 MSPs, while Northern Ireland has 90 MLAs. Even with next year’s changes, Wales will have less elected members per citizen compared to Northern Ireland.
More SenedD members can reduce the charge, improve local representation and, significantly, encourage more diverse pools of people to stand for the office.
How is the voting system changing?
This will change how SenedD members are selected along with detail.
Since its installation, Wales has used the “additional member system”, a mixture of the first-past-posts for the seats of the constituency and proportional to the regional people.
Since 2026, the system will be replaced by a closed list proportional system, which will be used using the D’Hound method. This is a system designed to be fair, ensuring that a party seats the ratio more closely winning, reflecting the votes obtained to them. But this also means that voters will have to say less which people are elected.
Wales will be divided into 16 constituencies, selecting each six MS. Instead of voting for the same candidate, voters will select a party or an independent candidate.
Parties will submit a list of eight candidates per constituency. The seats will then be allotted on the basis of the overall part of the vote of each party, along with the candidates they appear in their party list.
For example, if a party wins the percentage of votes equal to three seats, the top three people will be selected in their party list. The calculation for this is defined by the D’Hondt Formula. The decision to adopt this method in Wales was one of the recommendations of the Special Objective Committee on SendD improvement in 2022.
Many countries across Europe use this system for their elections including Spain and Portugal. Among countries with small constituency -sized countries, D’Hound has sometimes favored large parties and has made it difficult for small parties to get land. Some observers in Wales must be watching closely.
An alternative method, the Santa-taloo used in Sweden and Latvia is often seen as more balanced in the treatment of small and medium-sized parties, which is probably a pioneer for more consent politics. But also, its downside. Countries that have many small parties can give rise to fragmented parliament and make decisions more difficult.
In short, no system is correct. But D’Hound was selected for balance between proportional, simplicity and practicality.
Can it confuse voters?
There is a growing difference between the electoral systems in the UK and even within Wales within the UK.
At the UK level, the first-Pas-Post (FPTP) is a method used for the Westminster elections. Meanwhile, some Welsh Council are experimenting with single transferable votes, which allow voters to rank candidates in order of preference.
Therefore, some people in Wales may navigate themselves three different polling systems for three different elections. Obviously, it risk confusion. Voters and FPTP’s “winners all” used to vote can confuse nature how seats are allocated in Wales in 2026.
With many different systems, the risk is that people do not fully understand how their vote translates into representation. In turn, this confidence reduces faith and the voter reduces voting.
Voters will require clear, accessible information about how their vote works – and why it matters. But this is particularly challenging when the UK-Wide media often prepares FPTP-centered language and surrounding debates, which can shape public expectations. News about Wales is often barely registered beyond its boundaries, while news about politics in Wales is barely registered.
Electoral reforms often indicate extensive interactions. As Welsh voters adjust to the new proportional system, some people may begin to question Westminster’s FPTP model, especially if Sendd reflects the diversity of better votes. FPTP is often criticized to produce “wasted votes” and encourage strategic votes in especially safe seats.
Under a more proportional system, strategic voting becomes less necessary, which has the ability to move voter habits in Wales.
If the improvement in 2026 leads to a more representative and effective SenedD, it can not only re -shape Welsh democracy, but also argue about electoral reforms across the UK.
Stephen Clear is a lecturer in constitutional and administrative law and public procurement at Bangore University.
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