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English phrases that once troubled you Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro went so far as to urge the audience to phase out words like skatepark and fashion in his State of the Union address.
But as the White House now considers whether US troops should invade Venezuela, Maduro is embracing English, singing a John Lennon song supposeWhile advocating for peace and dancing to a remix of his latest English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace”.
While his change is seen as a sign of frustration by supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told their supporters in Washington that the threat of military action would crack Maduro’s inner circle, months of pressure have yet to result in defection or government change.
loyalty vs punishment
Behind this habit of remaining in power lies a system that harshly punishes disloyal allies and allows loyal ministers, judges, military leaders and other officials to enrich themselves.
“The Bolivarian Revolution has a remarkable potential: the ability to unify in the face of external pressure,” said Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuelan Observatory at Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario, referring to the political movement also known as Chavismo. Maduro inherited this legacy from late President Hugo Chavez. “When pressure comes from abroad, they manage to unite, defend themselves and protect themselves.”
There are corruption networks blessed by Chávez and Maduro based on the loyalty-or-punishment principle that allow loyalists to get rich. The policy has stymied previous attempts to oust Maduro and helped him and his close allies avoid economic sanctions, receive a U.S. presidential pardon and claim an election victory that they had narrowly lost.
Rodriguez said prison and torture could be part of the punishment, which is typically harsher for accused wrongdoers with military affiliations. The strategy has been vital for authoritarian Maduro to maintain control over the military, which he allows to smuggle drugs, oil, wildlife and myriad goods in exchange for coup-proof barracks.
Rodriguez said, “It has been a very effective tool because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate actors who try to rise to the top at some point, and it has been able to expose the corrupt conduct of all types of actors.”
The army stands with Maduro
Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, had counted on the military’s support to remove Maduro from power after credible evidence revealed that Maduro had lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood by Maduro, just as they did during the 2019 barracks revolt by a cadre of soldiers who swore loyalty to Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader previously recognized by the Trump administration as Venezuela’s rightful leader.
Since returning to office, US President donald trump has increased pressure on Maduro and his allies, doubling the reward for information leading to his arrest on narcoterrorism charges to $50 million. The 2020 indictment accused Maduro of leading the Cartel de los Soles, which the US State Department designated as a foreign terrorist organization on Monday.
Maduro has denied the allegations.
On Saturday, Trump said airspace “above and around” the South American country should be considered “completely closed.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of creating a “colonial threat”, leading supporters to rally behind what he called an attack on national sovereignty.
Suspected drug boats bombed
In early September, the US military began blowing up boats that the Trump administration accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing more than 80 people.
Many, including Maduro himself, see the US military moves as an attempt to end Chavismo’s grip on power. The opposition further heightened this perception by renewing its promise to remove Maduro from office.
Two weeks after the first boat attack, Chavismo’s loyalty was directly tested when Maduro’s pilot rejected US efforts to implicate him in a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and detain him to face charges.
Bittner Villegas, a member of the elite presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired American officer trying to recruit him, “We Venezuelans are made of a different cloth.” “The last thing is that we are traitors.”
Supporters of the ruling party took out a march on Tuesday caracas To demonstrate what he described as the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended in a ceremony in which Maduro picked up a jeweled sword that had belonged to South American independence hero Simon Bolivar and directed attendees, including cabinet ministers, to swear in the name of God to defend peace and freedom.
Susan Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said that authoritarian leaders have a “desire for unity” and prefer public displays of loyalty to prevent division between leadership and social upheaval. He explained that division may lead people to believe that the risk of protest is reduced.
‘We have to stay united’
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that the designation of Cartel de los Soles provides Trump with additional options to deal with Maduro. Hegseth did not provide details on those options, but administration officials have indicated that they are having trouble seeing a situation in which Maduro is still in power as an acceptable end result.
David Smilde, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for more than three decades, said only people who don’t understand Chavismo would think that a show of force would lead to a change in government.
“This is exactly the kind of thing that unifies them,” Smilde said of the deployment of U.S. military forces. “They also talk about a $50 million reward, but what military officer in their right mind would trust the U.S. government? And more broadly, if the entire premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan Armed Forces are a drug cartel, what motivation could they possibly have for attacking Maduro and participating in regime change?”
Maduro’s entire presidency has been marked by political, social and economic crisis, which has pushed millions into poverty and driven more than 7.7 million to flee. Due to this crisis, support for the ruling party has also decreased across the country.
With his inner circle retaining loyalty despite growing US pressure, Maduro has also tried to retain his diminished base through long-established practices that include holding marches in the capital.
Zenaida Quintero, a school porter, has watched the country be devastated under Maduro’s watch, with vivid memories of the severe food shortages experienced by Venezuelans in the late 2010s. However, his support for Maduro has not wavered, and his commitment is based on one fact: Chávez chose him to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.
Quintero, 60, said Maduro, like Chávez, will not abandon his supporters.
Quintero said of Maduro, “I trust him.” “We have to stay united. We have to defend ourselves.”