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US job creation barely increased to 7.7 million in October due to continued uncertainty over the direction of the US economy.
labor department It reported Tuesday that employers posted 7.67 million vacancies in October, close to September’s 7.66 million.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which was delayed due to the prolonged government shutdown, also showed that layoffs increased and the number of people leaving their jobs – a sign of confidence in the labor market – fell in October.
Job openings have declined steadily since hitting a record peak of 12.1 million in March 2022, when the economy was recovering from COVID-19 lockdowns. The job market has cooled in part due to a prolonged period of high interest rates set by the Fed through 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation.
Overall, it is a confusing time for the US economy, which has been hit by President Donald Trump’s decision to reverse decades of US policy in favor of free trade and instead impose double-digit tariffs on imports from most countries in the world.
policy maker federal Reserve They are meeting this week to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate, and the meeting is expected to be unusually contentious. inflation It’s stuck above the Fed’s 2% target, partly because importers have tried to pass on the cost of Trump’s tariffs by raising prices. Normally, stubborn inflation would discourage Fed policymakers from cutting rates. But the job market has looked volatile in recent months, and the Fed is expected to lower its benchmark rate for the third time this year, although some policymakers may disagree.
Meanwhile, the 43-day federal shutdown has muddied the government’s economic data.
The October report on job vacancies was delayed a week, and the September edition was not published separately because federal data collectors were on vacation. Instead, September’s JOLTS numbers were combined with October’s in Tuesday’s report.
The Labor Department will release numbers for hiring and unemployment in November next Tuesday, 11 days later than originally scheduled. The department is not releasing unemployment rates for October because it could not calculate the numbers during the shutdown. It will release some October jobs data — including the number of positions created that month by employers — as well as the full November jobs report.
Forecasters surveyed by data firm FactSet forecast employers added fewer than 38,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4% in September, low by historical standards but the highest in nearly four years.