Analysts say a series of recent Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have severely damaged Moscow’s processing capabilities.
The attack, which Kiev and its allies reportedly aimed to deprive Russia of a major source of revenue to fund its invasion of Ukraine, reduced Moscow’s overall oil processing capacity by 370,500 barrels per day, or 7% of its total production. Reuters calculations.
On March 13, a fire broke out at the Ryazan refinery following a drone attack, forcing the shutdown of two damaged primary refining units. The plant, located south of Moscow, produces about 317,000 barrels per day, accounting for 5.8% of Russia’s total refined crude oil.
Video posted online showed a Ukrainian drone flying through smoky skies over the refinery before spiraling into the plant, causing a massive explosion.
According to Reuters, citing sources, another drone attack on March 12 targeted the NORSI refinery near the city of Nizhny Novgorod, about 430 kilometers east of Moscow, destroying the facility. half of the plant’s refining capacity.
Kiev claimed attacks on at least seven different refineries. Several are located in regions bordering Ukraine.
“The war required large amounts of diesel for tanks, trucks, etc. Therefore, the region was directly responsible for the supply of diesel for the war.” Thomas O’Donnell, an energy and geopolitical analyst at the Hertie School of Management in Berlin, pointed out .
The attack on refineries in northern Russia was also aimed at reducing Moscow’s hydrocarbon export revenue.
“By hitting the refineries there, the diesel they’re exporting – which they used to export almost as much as oil – is being destroyed, and if they want to make money on that they have to switch it to oil,” O’Donnell told Voice of America.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the military’s growing drone capabilities following last week’s attacks.
“In recent weeks, many people have seen that there are vulnerabilities in the Russian war machine that we can exploit with our weapons,” Zelensky said in a nightly video address on March 16 – a range of Ukrainian capabilities. Ukraine will now permanently have its own air strike force. “
The strike in Ukraine combined with a Western price cap of $60 a barrel for Russian oil could increase pressure on the Kremlin. Buyers who do not comply with the cap will be banned from using Western services such as insurance and shipping. Since November, Western countries have stepped up monitoring of compliance with these measures.
Russia uses a fleet of “shadow” tankers to move its oil around the world, much of it via the Baltic Sea or the Arctic. Analyst O’Donnell said this provides an opportunity for Ukraine’s allies.
“The tankers themselves are very old and quite crude. They can be intercepted in the Channel, in the territorial waters between Denmark and Sweden, and subject to legal inspection,” he told VOA. “The inspectors might say, ‘This insurance isn’t good enough,’ or ‘These ships are not of the right quality to carry this oil,’ and turn them around. That would be a dramatic intervention.”
