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DDonald Trump started it 20 point peace plan As the beginning of a new era for peace in the Middle East.
Yet since the ceasefire came into force on 10 October, even more More than 400 people have been killed in Gaza According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, in Israeli attacks. Israel has also accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire, including being behind the IED blasts used against its troops.
The United Nations confirmed this last week Khan Younis’ two-week-old Palestinian baby diesThis is what it says is the first death related to hypothermia. The Palestinian Health Ministry says more than a dozen people have died so far due to extreme cold as winter begins.
More than 90 percent of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents are displaced, with most living in tents and exposed to flooding and cold temperatures.
And despite the Global Hunger Monitor saying that Gaza is no longer technically in famine due to the influx of additional aid, humanitarian organizations Say it’s not nearly enough.
In fact, the initial phase of the agreement Trump has announced is teetering on a knife’s edge even before negotiations have begun between the warring sides about phase two.
The dawn of peace in the region is still far away. How can the crucial points of phase two be hammered out when phase one is faltering and both sides are accusing each other of serious violations?
There has been little or no movement. Last week, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly hosted senior officials from across the region, including Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, in Miami, Florida. The implementation of the second phase was to be reviewed in these talks, but no concrete steps have been taken so far.
In the Trump plan, phase two was to include the deployment of an international security force, the establishment of an internationally supervised technical governing body for Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas militants, and further Israeli troop withdrawal.
But this entire process is to be overseen by the so-called “Peace Board” chaired by President Trump. It is not clear who will be on that board or the Executive Council immediately below it. Tony Blair was slated to be a major partner, but earlier this month he reportedly ruled out running.
Other names I’ve heard include Egyptian real estate billionaire Naguib Sawiris, perhaps indicative of the priorities of these institutions.
Phase two only addresses basic “day-after” temporary structures for Gaza. It also does not deal with the difficult intergenerational fight for Palestinian self-determination, accountability and justice.
According to rights groups, the peace plan does not mention the West Bank, which since deadly attacks by Hamas on October 7 two years ago, has seen the bloodiest period since Israel first annexed the territory in 1967.
There are also concerns about some of the partially established mechanisms.
Right now, there is a proposed Joint International Command Center, reportedly located in a warehouse in Israel. As far as I understand, it was supposed to be a place to monitor the ceasefire and aid flows and generate ideas for a deal.
Initially it was welcomed by many stakeholders. In practice, I am told it has become an embarrassment. Nothing is happening, and nothing is moving forward.
There are also growing concerns about the underlying motives of all parties. Diplomatic and humanitarian sources fear that Israel is creating a permanent boots-on-the-ground buffer zone several kilometers inside Gaza, where it continues to destroy neighborhoods and maintain a ground presence.
This week, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, speaking at a settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, said Israeli forces would never abandon all of Gaza. He said he planned to establish a type of entity – Nahal – that has historically played a role in the establishment of Israeli communities, including settlements that are illegal under international law.
He later distanced himself from the worrying comments and said Israel had no interest in developing settlements in Gaza, but Hamas said this was a clear violation of the ceasefire.
There are also concerns that a reorganized version of COGAT is being developed to work within the territory, rather than being a truly international, Palestinian-led administration to help Gaza’s transition.
Kogat is the Israeli military unit responsible for coordinating civil affairs with the Palestinians, for example, the entry of aid, which has been completely and partially disrupted intermittently over the past two years.
Israel has repeatedly denied any vague intentions, as it has also denied violating the ceasefire, or knowingly committing any crimes, or being responsible for genocide in Gaza (charges leveled against the country by the UN Commission of Inquiry).
There is also concern on the Israeli side that Hamas has no interest in disarmament or disengagement. Meanwhile, violence is escalating in the occupied West Bank, with settlements expanding rapidly and displacement of Palestinians by Israelis continuing.
Obviously, a 20-point PDF will not suffice to solve the Gordian mystery of this conflict. Especially as the genocide continues, tough issues like Palestinian self-determination are not on the table, and key elements of its early stages are being crushed.
There is an urgent and serious joint effort required to implement and sustain a genuine and meaningful ceasefire and begin the long journey to true peace and justice.