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chairman donald trump scheduled to meet Prince Mohammed bin Salman earlier on Tuesday white House go by saudi arabiaDe facto ruler for more than seven years.
Yuvraj, widely known by his initials MBSHe has not visited the US since the killing of Saudi critic Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul in 2018, which caused a global outcry.
US intelligence concluded that MBS had approved the capture or killing of Khashoggi, a prominent critic. He denied ordering the operation but accepted responsibility as the de facto ruler of the state.
More than seven years later, the world’s largest economy and the world’s top oil producer looks to move ahead.
Trump is trying to capitalize on a $600 billion Saudi investment promise made during Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May. He avoided mentioning human rights concerns during that visit and is expected to do so again.
Saudi leaders are seeking security guarantees amid regional turmoil and want access to artificial intelligence technology and progress toward an agreement on a civilian nuclear program.
“A page has been turned on Khashoggi’s murder,” said Aziz Alghasian, a lecturer in international relations at the Saudi-based Naif Arab University for Security Sciences.
Focus on defense deal
The United States and Saudi Arabia have long had an arrangement to sell oil to the kingdom at favorable prices and provide security in exchange for the superpower.
This equation was shaken by Washington’s failure when Iran attacked oil installations in the kingdom in 2019. Concerns resurfaced in September, when Israel attacked Doha, Qatar, in an attack it targeted members of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Subsequently, Trump signed a defense agreement with Qatar through executive order. Many analysts, diplomats and regional officials believe the Saudis will get something similar.
Saudi Arabia has sought a defense agreement approved by the US Congress in recent talks. But Washington has deployed that team to the state to normalize relations with Israel.
Riyadh has linked this to the commitment of the most right-wing Israeli government in its history to Palestinian statehood. israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahuIsrael, which agreed to a Trump-brokered ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza last month after two years of war, reaffirmed its staunch opposition to Palestinian independence on Sunday.
Trump’s executive order on defense would fall short of the defense deal sought by the Saudis, similar to the agreement with Qatar. But Alghasian said it would be “a step along the way, part of the process, not the end of the process.”
A Western diplomat based in the Gulf summarized the dynamics: “Trump wants normalization and the Saudis want a full defense agreement, but circumstances do not allow. In the end, both sides will get less than they want. That’s diplomacy.”
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator for Democratic and Republican administrations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expected an executive order that would ask the U.S. and Saudis “to immediately consult on what to do in response to the threat,” while not actively committing Washington to coming to Riyadh’s defense.
“This could range from providing different types of support, to moving weapons, deploying defensive missile batteries like THAAD or Patriot, deploying naval forces with a Marine unit — actively participating in the fight in an offensive, not just a defensive manner,” he said.
Deals key amid regional rivalry
Riyadh is also pushing for deals in nuclear energy and artificial intelligence as part of its ambitious Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy and strengthen its position relative to regional rivals.
Winning approval to acquire advanced computer chips will be key to the kingdom’s plans to become a central node in global AI and compete with the United Arab Emirates, which signed a US multibillion-dollar data center deal in June that gave it access to high-end chips.
MBS also wants to strike a deal with Washington to develop a Saudi civilian nuclear program, part of its effort to diversify away from oil.
Such a deal would open up access to U.S. nuclear technology and security guarantees and help Saudi Arabia catch up with the United Arab Emirates, which has its own program, and traditional foe Iran.
But progress on the US deal has been difficult because the Saudis did not want to agree to US conditions that would rule out enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel – both potential pathways to the bomb.
Ross said he expected to announce an agreement on nuclear energy, or at least a statement on progress toward it.