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The region, which is usually accustomed to scorching temperatures instead of continuous rainfall, is now experiencing severe rainfall, significantly increasing the risk of flash floods that can erupt and become deadly within minutes.
Tropical Storm PriscillaDowngraded to a stronger hurricane, it has weakened in strength over the eastern Pacific near Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula. However, the remnants of the storm still contain considerable moisture and are now moving toward the southwestern United States, where flood warnings were issued on Thursday.
Meteorologists predict that rain bands from Priscilla will drench some parts of ArizonaUtah, New Mexico and Colorado throughout the weekend. In these areas, as much rainfall can occur in a few hours as it usually does in an entire year. Recent deadly flooding events in Texas and New Mexico highlight the serious potential of such intense rainfall.
“We don’t want to see people getting caught up in the dangers that we’re going to see,” said Robert Rickey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, Arizona.
Arizona will be most affected
Northern Arizona is most at risk, with 2 to 3 inches (5 to 8 centimeters) of rain expected in and around the national park gateway city of Flagstaff to the south. Grand Canyon,
There may be even greater gains in some areas, Rickey said, but it’s impossible to predict exactly where that will happen.
High-elevation Flagstaff receives substantial rainfall, over 2 feet (60 cm) per year, although not often in such large amounts. Southwestern and northeastern Arizona see much less rainfall, with some locations receiving 5 inches (13 cm) per year or less; Phoenix grows only 7 or 8 inches (18 to 20 cm) per year.
In such deserts, heavy rainfall can rapidly turn deadly in backcountry areas surrounded by paved, urban landscapes and valleys with minimal drainage infrastructure.
worried people going out are calling National Weather Service Asking if they should be cancelled. The agency has been kept open during the government shutdown.
“I got to have these candid conversations with him,” Ricky said. “Is the risk worth the reward?”
Never go here if heavy rain is possible
After heat, flooding is the deadliest weather event in the US, killing 145 people in 2024. Many victims were in their cars, and faced rushing water that could be deceptively dangerous.
In Arizona, an “idiot motorist law” allows drivers to be billed up to $2,000 if they drive around a barricade or warning sign in a flooded area and have to be rescued.
By encouraging better driving, the law attempts to reduce the dozens of such wrecks each year in the state. However, some people worry that the law discourages people from seeking help immediately, putting them in even greater danger. The law is not enforced consistently.
The desert valleys and arroyos of the southwest are notorious for being prone to flash floods. Even a storm surge miles (kilometers) upstream can turn dry water into raging torrents, blowing debris downstream and blocking exits for pedestrians and cars.
That’s what happened in southern Utah a few weeks ago, when flooding in a desert canyon trapped at least 10 people, all of whom were eventually captured by authorities.
Mountains can also bring deadly floods. In June, three people, including children aged 7 and 4, died in flash flooding at a riverside RV park.
Forested areas may be worse exposed to flash flooding if they have recently burned vegetation that can hold water and allow it to soak into the ground. This weekend, that includes the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, which burned in a massive wildfire last summer.
The National Weather Service had posted a flash flood watch for most of Arizona, as well as southern Utah and small parts of California, Nevada and Colorado.
Strong storms were already moving north across Arizona and southern Utah, dropping up to an inch (2.5 cm) of rain in places. Scattered flash flood warnings were posted along the state line, including at Lake Powell and Glen Canyon National Recreation Area.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
Most of the southwest’s rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season from mid-June to September with sporadic storms. Rain from such autumn tropical systems can occur once a year, said meteorologist Ricky.
In Flagstaff, heavy equipment was being deployed across the city, and crews were monitoring low-water crossings and areas where the wildfire burned for possible flooding.
Self-service sandbags were available to residents in a city park, and water was being released from a pond to create more room for runoff.
The Havasupai Tribe, whose reservation sits in a deep gorge near the Grand Canyon and is prone to flooding, advised tourists in a social media post to avoid certain areas if it was raining or flooding, and to seek higher ground if they saw water flowing in the area.
The reservation is one of the most remote reservations in the continental US and can only be reached by mule or on foot. Visitors come from all over the world to see the blue-green waterfalls and creekside campground.
Mike Rock of Junipine Resort in Sedona, which is located along Oak Creek, said staff were monitoring road and weather conditions, and telling guests to take precautions.
If the water rises the picnic tables will be relocated closer to the creek. If flooding or rockfall closes nearby roads, he said, employees can stay at the resort, as happens during inclement weather.
“All signs indicate that we are going to be very tough,” he said.