Jeremy Hunt has spent weeks managing expectations for potential tax cuts in the spring budget, with Tory MPs desperately looking for ways to avoid an election defeat as household finances and livelihoods reel from a record tax bill Difficult due to cost crisis.

As the chancellor’s fiscal space shrinks ahead of the budget, so do his spending plans in areas such as housing and defence, as he pledges he will not “take any risks” to the UK economy despite all the political pressure.

However, despite a difficult financial background, he found enough funds on Wednesday to offer a further 2p discount on National Insurance, which he said would save the average household £900 a year when combined with the 2p discount announced last autumn. .

In what could be the Conservatives’ last budget before the general election, it could be Hunt’s moment to speak directly to the nation, providing voters with a major electoral offer and setting out the choices they face at the ballot box.

But despite such expectations, it was more of a staging post than a starting point for a campaign – trying to convince the public that the Conservatives would no longer take any risks on the economy, as long as they had enough money. Stop backbench rebellion.

“It’s not as sexy as I would have liked, but it gives us scope to go further before the next election,” one Conservative MP said afterwards. Another thought Mr Hunt was burying his head in the sand, saying: “This budget is not going to change the polls.”

“This is probably the best thing we can do responsibly that day,” a third added. “He successfully conveyed the message that Labor had no plan.”

The original 2p National Insurance cut proposed by Hunt in January did not change opinion polls, with Tory MPs doubting whether the latest cuts will make any difference. “It didn’t work out last time, so what makes them think it will be different this time?” one said.

Many backbenchers would prefer that Hunt announce an income tax cut which, while more costly, would benefit the elderly, landlords and workers and could have greater political clout.

As Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2022, Sunak announced in April this year that income tax would be reduced from 20p to 19p. Others cited his pledge during the Conservative leadership campaign to cut the base rate to 16p.

What they got instead was a flick of the ankle from Hunt over his ambition to abolish national insurance entirely at some unspecified point in the future, as he said he wanted to “end the unfairness of double taxation” and even Although this would cost around £50bn a year.

After the budget was announced, government insiders claimed that it was not intended to be a game-changer. Conservative MPs, already anxious about falling so far behind in the polls, are rarely counting on that being enough to save them at the election.

Figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility did little to ease the fatalistic mood, showing that Hunt’s cuts failed to prevent taxation from rising to levels not seen since 1948 and that living standards would be lower in five years than feared last autumn.

The forecast also relies on a rise in fuel taxes, which has not happened since 2011, and no real growth in public spending per head over the next five years, with departments expected to see annual real budget cuts of 2.3% from 2024 -25.

Conservative aides focused on one glimmer of hope: actual household disposable income data was better than forecast in November. They hope that over time, life for the public does start to get better.

In his statement, Hunt repeatedly hit Labor where it hurt: The public still doesn’t know what Keir Starmer’s government will do. “They have no public service programme,” he told jeering Labor MPs. “Then why don’t you listen to us?”

He also criticized Labour’s plan to end non-resident tax status for foreign earners – despite long-standing criticism of the plan from the Conservatives, who previously thought it would cost £350m – which could give Rachel Reeves Leaving a gap of more than £2bn. Her plan.

The government confirmed it would not hold a spending review to allocate cash to government departments until after the next election, deferring the difficult decision to another day and potentially leaving it to a future Labor government.

In a round of radio interviews late on Wednesday afternoon, Hunt insisted the budget was “absolutely not” the party’s last roll of the dice before the election.

“We’ve put together a budget that shows we’re turning things around,” he added. Yet few of his colleagues believe they can reverse what appears to be an inevitable fate – and the public seems to agree.