The stammer is likely to scrape through welfare bill votes, but it is not a win

The stammer is likely to scrape through welfare bill votes, but it is not a win

W.ith A simple majority of 156, This would be really extraordinary if the government Was defeated today But Major welfare reforms.

But this does not mean Kir Stamor Today, you can take any kind of satisfaction on a numerical victory in the Commons.

The fact is that, in many ways he has already lost. By being Forced to give important concessions by rebels As Prime Minister, an important part of his government’s reform program for less than a year, Sir ker It is almost unprecedented for someone who has recently won power.

Sir Kir Stmper has to face the possibility of a major rebellion on the government’s welfare bill on Tuesday (Paul Curry/PA) ,Packet,

Even with those changes – which is Effective half savings for £ 2.5bn – The Prime Minister appears to vote against his welfare bill between 20 and 50 Labor MPs, voting with many more restraints.

Best case landscape Of about 20 rebels It underlines that now there is a origin of backbenchers in the open rebellion against his leadership, and many are more unhappy. This is the kind of thing that is usually for governments, as they have been in power for a significant time.

For example, sage Sunak defeat and continuous rebellion on Rwanda and immigration came in power for 14 years.

The question for Sir Keir will be the question of how many of these rebellions and now they face difficult reforms and future cost cuts, especially amid growing suggestions they can be forced to increase taxes-a measure that he has tried to escape a lot.

If he is to survive and regain any right, he can be forced to make a significant change of personnel in his cabinet, as well as under pressure with Chancellor Rachel Reves.

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As the Prime Minister prepares to mark a year in the office, these are not the circumstances he wanted for his anniversary.

Until he can achieve some glimpse of control, his leadership will have serious question marks on the next year if the election continues to provide disappointing results.

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