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New Delhi, Nov 12 (IANS) Although exit polls have once again predicted a victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar assembly elections, there is a lot at stake for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar when the electronic voting machines (EVMs) start counting on Friday, November 14.
The Chief Minister may not be contesting the elections himself, but he would certainly like to see his led Janata Dal (United) become at least the second largest party – if not the largest – in the Bihar Legislative Assembly.
In the assembly elections 2020, his party fielded 115 candidates to win 43 seats, becoming the third largest party at that time.
NDA ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came second with 74 wins out of 110 constituencies.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), however, with 75 seats, fell short of a majority in its alliance with the Grand Alliance.
Nitish Kumar, who ruled continuously for more than a decade in the last term, despite heading the government several times, has preferred to become a member of the Bihar Legislative Council.
The last time he won an assembly election was in 1995, when he contested from the Harnaut assembly seat, which is a part of the Nalanda Lok Sabha constituency. He was then the leader of the Samata Party, which he co-founded with George Fernandes.
Also in 1985, he won from Harnaut as a candidate of the then Charan Singh led Lok Dal.
As a Member of Parliament, Nitish Kumar has represented the Barh Lok Sabha seat five times (1989, 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999) for the Janata Dal (twice), Samata Party (twice), and Janata Dal (United) respectively.
In 2004, he contested from two parliamentary constituencies, where he lost to Barh, but won from Nalanda. If the exit poll predictions come true, this could be the last stint for the 74-year-old Bihar politician, although Nitish Kumar himself would like to remain the leader for all (political) seasons, even in the autumn (if not winter) of his career.
Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s successor, 36-year-old RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, seems to be in a hurry. Buoyed by the 2020 results, he won over allies to be projected as the chief ministerial face of the alliance.
His leadership role in Bihar is likely to survive as the figures are close on Friday, but if the opposition group falls below 90 and the RJD itself falls to third place in this political race, questions are likely to be raised by its allies.
These also include Congress and Leftists, who themselves do not have any special status in the politics of Bihar. But the Left, especially Dipankar Bhattacharya, general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) Liberation, has grown in a state where it had slipped significantly after Lalu Prasad Yadav used Mandal Commission recommendations in the electoral equations.
In 2020, contesting in 29 constituencies, the Left together won 16 seats, with Bhattacharya’s party claiming 12 of the 19 seats on which it had fielded its candidates.
If the combined strength of the Red parties drops to a single figure, it will be the death knell for the Left – as it is in nearby West Bengal. But then again, the opposition has the EVMs and the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision of Voter List (SIR) to blame.
Also at stake is Prashant Kishor’s political future – where, according to exit poll predictions – if his Jan Suraj Party ends up with zero to three seats, the pollster will need to rethink the alignment.
As of now, he is adamant on contesting the elections alone, even if his MLAs – if any – decide to vacate the seat later; A lesson from the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which won five seats in 2020 but failed to retain the winners.
Two other youth leaders have promises to keep. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan will have to prove that he is his father’s son by winning some victories after a disappointing performance in 2020.
However, he is still gunning for a high hundred percent score in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where his party won all the five seats it contested.
Another scion, Tej Pratap, will have to prove his claim of getting people’s support after being suspended from RJD and kept out of the Lalu Prasad Yadav family.
–IANS
JB/Red