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The federal government shutdown is rapidly approaching the second-longest shutdown on record, with no end in sight. Some lawmakers are predicting it could be the longest, surpassing a president’s 35 days. donald trumpFirst term of.
The Trump administration is using the current shutdown to accomplish its preferred priorities while trying to eliminate those it does not. still, democrat They are insisting that any funding bill include help for the millions of Americans who will lose health insurance coverage or face dramatically higher monthly premiums Congress Does nothing.
The shutdown began October 1. Here’s a look at its impact so far on workers, the economy and services provided by the government.
furlough and dismissal
The federal government employed approximately 2.3 million civilian employees as of March 31. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that about 750,000 of those workers will be furloughed each day during the shutdown. This means they will not come to work until the shutdown ends. Others are considered “outcasts” and go to work, helping to protect life and property and performing other essential services.
Both groups of workers will get payments, but on a retrospective basis. This means that they are facing the possibility of not getting full salary at the end of this month after first getting partial salary for the work done in late September.
The country’s 1.3 million active-duty service members got temporary relief. He felt that his pay check would disappear on Wednesday. But Trump directed the Pentagon to redirect the funds. The chances of a second relief seem slim.
Of note for taxpayers is that the government tab comes to about $400 million a day to pay furloughed workers during the stay-at-home order, according to a CBO estimate provided at the request of Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.
The administration is also trying to fire thousands of federal employees from agencies that don’t align with its priorities. Republican leaders in Congress have said this is part of the side effects of the shutdown. However, previous presidents have not used the shutdown to address mass shootings.
The Republican administration has announced a cutback in the force that will affect 4,100 employees, with the largest cuts coming to the departments of Treasury, Health and Human Services, Education and Housing and Urban Development.
white House Budget chief Russ Watt said in an interview on “The Charlie Kirk Show” that several more were planned.
“I think we’ll probably get north of 10,000,” Watt said.
“We want to be very aggressive about closing down the bureaucracy,” Watt said. “Not just the funding, but the bureaucracy, that we now have the opportunity to do this.”
A federal judge has temporarily halted the firings, saying the cuts appear to be politically motivated and being made without much thought. White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt said Thursday that the administration is “100%” confident it will prevail on the merits in the subsequent legal action.
Lawmakers acknowledge that many federal workers live paycheck-to-paycheck and will face some financial stress during the shutdown. Food banks in some communities have stepped up efforts to help them. For example, the Capital Area Food Bank said it will organize additional food distribution Washington The zone is opening Monday to support federal workers and contractors.
economic impact
Previous shutdowns have had little impact on the economy, reducing growth in the quarter during which the shutdown occurs, but causing a small increase in growth in the following three months to help offset this.
An estimate from Oxford Economics says the shutdown reduces economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week. A shutdown lasting the entire quarter, which never happened, would reduce growth by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points for those three months.
Some industries have suffered more than others.
The US Travel Association said the travel economy is expected to lose $1 billion per week as travelers change plans to visit national parks, historic sites and the nation’s capital, where many facilities such as the Smithsonian Institution museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors.
The US Chamber of Commerce notes that the Small Business Administration supports approximately $860 million in loans per week to 1,600 small businesses. Those programs are close to new loans during the shutdown. The shutdown has also halted the issuance and renewal of flood insurance policies, delaying mortgage closings and real estate transactions.
The Federal Aviation Administration has reported air controller shortages in cities across the United States, from airports in Boston and Philadelphia to control centers in Atlanta and Houston. Flight delays have spread to Nashville, Tennessee, Dallas, Newark, New Jersey and other airports.
political outcome
The party that insists on conditions as part of a government funding bill generally does not get its way. This was the case for Republicans in 2013 and 2018. It remains to be seen how things will play out this time, but neither side seems to be budging.
So far, the public is divided on who is to blame for the impasse. Nearly 6 in 10 American adults say Trump and Republicans in Congress are “very much” or “quite a bit” responsible for the shutdown, according to a poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, while 54% say the same about Democrats in Congress.
Perceptions may change depending on Democratic priorities and how much the White House uses the shutdown to eliminate Democratic-leaning states and cities.
The administration has set aside about $18 billion for a new rail tunnel under the Hudson River between New York City and New Jersey and an expansion of the city’s Second Avenue Subway. It canceled $7.6 billion in grants supporting hundreds of clean energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. The administration cited reasons other than the shutdown for the change in funding.
Ultimately, there appears to be no easy way out of the shutdown. Republicans insist that any negotiations on health care must happen when the government is fully open for business. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R.S.D. Said, “We are not negotiating a hostage situation.”
Across from the Capitol, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Democrats “are not going to bend and we are not going to break because we stand up for the American people.”