During Donald Trump’s first term, he blocked the WTO’s ability to resolve trade disputes.
Abu Dhabi:
Donald Trump’s possible re-election as US president has cast a shadow over this week’s key meeting of the World Trade Organization, a body he has attacked in the past.
The meeting in Abu Dhabi is an opportunity to reform the three-decade-old body’s tense international trade dispute settlement process.
But despite the attendance of ministers from around the world, few expected the meeting to be a success amid geopolitical instability and strained relations between China and the United States.
“People are certainly very concerned that Trump will win and then what will he do? Will he withdraw the United States from the WTO?” said one diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
“It’s hard to stay optimistic right now, but we’ll try.”
During Trump’s first term, he blocked the WTO’s ability to resolve trade disputes, used vetoes to block leadership transitions and threatened to withdraw the United States from the WTO — while launching a trade war against China.
The deadlock was not broken until his successor Joe Biden entered the White House in 2021, with Nigerian Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala taking over the reins of the 164-member organization.
She tempered expectations that the meeting would produce any major institutional reforms, but hoped to at least emphasize its importance as a rules-based international framework.
One trade representative said, “If Trump wins, we will have to weather four years of storms” and try to minimize the damage caused by the “disaster.” He also spoke anonymously for the same reason.
-“Everyone suffers”-
Analysts say there is little the agency can do to protect itself in this situation, and the United States may take more unilateral action if Trump is re-elected in November.
Cedric Dupont of the Institute of International and Development said: “Americans are obsessed with what they see as grossly unfair competition from China, and because WTO rules don’t change anything there, they decide to take actions that violate those rules. “In Geneva.
He added: “The WTO will find itself between the anvil and the hammer, and of course everyone will suffer, including the Americans.”
Sébastien Jean, deputy director of the French Institute of International Relations, said the U.S. election cycle has hampered the country’s accession to the WTO.
He added: “This is a politically sensitive subject and exposure poses risks to anyone exposed to it.”
With the Biden administration unlikely to invest political capital on the issue, no one is expecting the U.S. delegation, led by Trade Representative Catherine Tai, to make significant concessions.
Making progress on smaller common goals — such as eliminating subsidies that contribute to overfishing, or balancing the needs of food security — could save the conference from failure.
However, the US election and Washington’s stance are not the only obstacles to a deal.
South Asian giant India – which also faces elections this spring – as well as South Africa and China have also maintained hardline stances on the body.
Many voices, including the head of the WTO, have stressed that the United States remains committed to the organization despite what may happen in the future.
“From a technical perspective, the United States is really busy in the WTO,” said Peter Ungphakorn, a former senior information officer at the WTO secretariat.
“The United States has also participated constructively in a wide range of WTO activities, including fisheries subsidies negotiations, and has made many recommendations to strengthen the way the WTO works, such as on sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers to trade,” he added .
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
