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paris agreement has helped the world escape dozens of dangerously hot day According to new research, the 10th anniversary of the agreement is celebrated every year.
But scientists have warned that The planet is still headed towards a “dangerously hot future” Until countries are phased out fossil fuel And faster.
The analysis by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution said that if governments meet their current emissions-reduction targets and limit global warming to 2.6C this century, the world could experience 57 fewer extremely hot days per year than the 4C scenario projected before the 2015 Paris Agreement was signed.
If temperatures rise by 4C, the planet will see an average temperature of 114 degrees Celsius warm day in the year. But if all countries meet their current targets, the number of such days could be roughly halved, the study said.
However, researchers warned that even 2.6C warming would expose billions of people to dangerously hot temperatures and increase global inequality.
“The Paris Agreement is helping many regions of the world avoid some of the worst potential consequences of climate change,” said Dr Christina Dahl, vice president of science at Climate Central.
“But make no mistake – we are still headed towards a dangerously hot future. The impacts of the recent heatwave show that many countries are ill-prepared to deal with 1.3C of warming, let alone a projected 2.6C – and that’s a big if – if they keep their current emissions pledges.”
The Paris Agreement sets the goal of keeping global temperatures well below 2C and continuing efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5C if possible.
But global warming has already reached 1.3C above pre-industrial levels The last 10 years have been the hottest on recordThe World Meteorological Organization said.
analysis from weather office, University of East Anglia And the National Center for Atmospheric Science found that 2024 was the hottest year on record and likely First year above 1.5CDue to which there is a fear that if this pattern continues then the limit of 1.5C may soon be violated.
Since 2015, just a 0.3C increase has led to an average of 11 more hot days per year and made extreme heat events significantly more likely – 10 times as likely in the Amazon, nine times as likely in Mali and Burkina Faso, and twice as likely in India and Pakistan, the researchers said.
“We are on track to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target this century, but that doesn’t mean we need a new target,” said Dr Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. “Warming must be kept below 2C as much as possible.”
Professor Frederick Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, said the Paris Agreement was “a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change”.
“However, countries need to do more to move away from oil, gas and coal,” he said. “We have all the knowledge and technology needed to move away from fossil fuels, but strong, fair policies are needed to move fast.”
The study revisited six major heat events in Southern Europe, West Africa, Australia, Asia, North and Central America, and the Amazon. It found that at 4C warming, such events would be five to 75 times more likely than today, and at 6C warming. Limiting warming to 2.6C would reduce the likelihood by three to 35 times compared with a temperature increase of 1.5 to 3C.
“Every fraction of a degree counts. From 2015 to 2023, with an additional 0.3C of warming, the world will now see an average of 11 hotter days per year,” said Joseph Giguere, a research associate at Climate Central.
“It’s not just a number – delays in moving away from fossil fuels mean millions more people exposed to life-threatening conditions.”
Climate change is costing billions of dollars in disasters, hitting poor countries harder.
A recent report by the International Institute for Environment and Development found that eight vulnerable countries in Asia and Africa lose about £17 billion every 20 years – roughly equivalent to the annual GDP of Senegal.
“Much of the world, primarily in low-resource settings, is having a hard time dealing with extreme heat,” said Emmanuel Raju, director of the Copenhagen Center for Disaster Research. “It’s a problem of injustice because people are pushed beyond their limits to cope and adapt.”
One of the major achievements since the adoption of the Paris Agreement has been improving adaptation efforts. Nearly half the countries now have early warning systems and at least 47 countries have heat-action plans, the report said.
Still, experts warned, progress remained uneven.
“The Paris Agreement is known for its warming targets, but we have also made significant progress on adaptation since we signed it,” said Roop Singh, head of urban and attribution at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “Heat risks will increase this century, so it is important that every country implements measures that help keep people safe.”
This study came just a few days ago cop30 summit in Belém, Brazil, where countries will once again gather to discuss progress in tackling climate crisis Against a backdrop of growing skepticism and opposition to climate science in the US.
US President Donald Trump has cut US foreign aid spendingClimate projects have been given the lowest priority for funding, preventing countries from being able to prepare for the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
talking to Independent in summerEvans Njewa, Malawi’s lead climate negotiator and current chair of the Least Developed Countries bloc of 44 low-income countries at UN climate talks earlier this year, revealed that UN efforts to enhance climate adaptation and resilience had essentially stalled after countries failed to agree on a target on adaptation financing at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan last year.
“Since COP29, negotiating chambers on adaptation have been politically deadlocked,” said Njaeva, who attended UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, in June ahead of Cop30. “The broken trust over the absence of a dedicated outcome on adaptation finance at COP29 has had a real impact.”
Researchers have urged governments to accelerate emissions cuts, expand adaptation finance and strengthen public-health systems to deal with rising heat risks.
“The Paris Agreement works,” said Bernadette Woods Plucky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central.
“This shows that when countries come together, they can accelerate emissions reductions to secure a future. The historic agreement is making a difference.”
This article was produced as part of The Independent Rethinking global aid Project.