The Iranian regime is facing its gravest threat: Here’s why — and what happens next

The Iranian regime is facing its gravest threat: Here’s why — and what happens next

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In granular moving camera allegedly taken away IranIn the video, people were seen crying as they were moved between a dozen bodies in body bags on the floor.

The video is said to have been filmed at a makeshift morgue in the South Tehranalthough this cannot be independently verified. It has been shared on Iranian Telegram accounts that have been circulating a handful of videos from Iran. Iran, The regime there is struggling to suppress a two-week uprising, The internet and even landlines have been turned off.

it follows other videos protest Continuous gunfire could be heard in the background. eyewitness accounts Describe the blood-stained streets and protester Deliberately deceived.

Even Iranian state television showed footage of dozens of body bags at the Tehran coroner’s office, even as it claimed the dead were victims of “armed terrorists.”

The increasingly fragile Islamic Republic is lashing out as it faces The most serious existential threat However.

Some of the most respected Iran analysts I now know believe, for the first time, that the regime’s collapse is indeed possible.

But the death toll has been huge.

Protesters dance around bonfires on the streets of Tehran (UGC, AP)

Protesters dance around bonfires on the streets of Tehran (UGC, AP) (Associated Press)

The Norway-based Iranian Human Rights Group said on Sunday it had verified that 192 people were killed at the rally, but added that the true death toll could be as high as 2,000.

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In the streets, protesters openly demanded the overthrow of the country’s oppressive clerical rulers, chanting “Death to the dictator” and, in some places, even calling for the return of the Pahlavi dynasty, which was ousted from power in the 1979 revolution.

this usHuman Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana) said protest Now covers 185 cities across the country all 31 provinces across the country.

This is not the first large-scale protest movement to rock the country. Just less than four years ago, Women, life, freedom uprising breaks out Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian Kurdish woman, died after she was arrested by the country’s repressive moral police for not wearing a headscarf.

But the feeling is different because of the unique vulnerabilities faced by Iran’s rulers.

First, the protests broke out in response to skyrocketing prices, as the local currency, the rial, sent spiraling pressure on all corners of society.

Crucially, it follows a catastrophic event 12 days of war between Israel and Iran last year. Israeli and later U.S. forces bombed key Iranian nuclear facilities, military infrastructure, and even nuclear scientists.

At one point, Iran could barely keep up with the recruitment of its military leadership: its newly appointed war chief was assassinated just days after his predecessor was killed.

Iran strikes back, launches attack Israel and a U.S. Air Force base in Qatar.

On June 14, 2025, a missile launched from Iran was photographed over Jerusalem

On June 14, 2025, a missile launched from Iran was photographed over Jerusalem (AFP via Getty Images)

But all this exposes deep vulnerabilities within the regime. Such success by Israel and the United States would mean massive intelligence leaks and possible coordination within Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards and possibly even the Supreme Leader’s closest circle.

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At the same time, Iran cannot rely on regional allies such as Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Israeli operations over the past few years have eliminated Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

This in turn led to the overthrow of Iran’s ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, by Islamist insurgents who are now turning to the United States.

Despite the regional escalation, Iran’s proxy groups in Iraq have remained eerily quiet, although that may change.

Sources close to the Iran-Iraq border told me there are reports that hundreds of Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces fighters are crossing into Iran to support the regime.

True or not, and however large their numbers may be, Iran’s leadership must still contend with massive nationwide protests, degraded military infrastructure, concerns about internal intelligence leaks and an insurgency, dwindling regional support, and the possibility of further attacks by the United States and Israel.

Lebanese Nasrallah

Lebanese Nasrallah (Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. all rights reserved)

Donald Trump It is understood they have been briefed on potential military strike options. Israeli sources said senior commanders held internal security consultations over the weekend and put the country on high alert amid possible U.S. intervention.

Iran has vowed to retaliate if U.S. bases and Israel were attacked, but how effective would such a response be?

All of this is happening at a time when the United States has an interference-loving president.

Just last week, Washington launched a shocking and unprecedented military operation in Venezuela, in which U.S. Special Forces captured the country’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro. Trump has since vowed to “manage” Venezuela and separately occupy Greenland, a NATO ally’s territory.

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It is not inconceivable that the United States would bomb its arch-nemesis Iran in an effort to achieve regime change.

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Jisu Niya, an Iranian-American human rights lawyer who works at the Atlantic Council, said this actually emboldened the protesters. Some protesters even waved Trump signs, she said.

“They believe that in the end it will be worth it, that they will not be alone in this, that they will be able to overthrow the regime,” she continued, adding that Iranians were “willing to risk their lives to see the regime fall.”

“The international community really needs to heed this call,” she added.

What happens next is unclear.

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah of Iran, not only encouraged people to continue taking to the streets today; in the posted video online on sunday Said he was preparing to return home.

This is either childish immaturity or a deliberate gesture. But what is certain is that the regime is fighting for its own survival.